I plan on having plenty of exposure to Jayson Tatum and Giannis assist props tonight. In his 5 playoff games, Tatum has averaged 14.2 potential assists, while Giannis has averaged 15.2 potential assists. In Game 1 of the series, Tatum had 16 potential assists and Giannis had 17. Usually when looking at assist props, I look for lines that are half or less of their typical potential assists. Giannis’ line is set at O7.5 +115 (DK) and JT’s line is O5.5 -145 (DK). One thing I love about these plays is the quality of assists that Tatum and Giannis get. Many of their assists in G1 came from Tatum and Giannis driving past their defender, drawing help, and finding an open teammate for a clean shot. 5 out of 6 of Tatum’s G1 assists lead to 3 point shots and we know that Milwaukee struggles to defend the 3. Additionally, 7 of Giannis’ 12 assists lead to 3s for the Bucks.
Plays: 1.1U Tatum 5+ assists / Giannis 6+ assists -110 (DK)
0.1U Tatum 8+ assists / Giannis 8+ assists +650 (DK)
Since a high percentage of their assists lead to 3s from the Bucks and the Celtics, I’ll also be pairing Tatum and Giannis with 3PM props. I’ve got Tatum’s 5+ assists in a couple plays including Tatum 5+ with Grant Williams and Al Horford 1+ 3PM each. Williams has 1+ 3 in 4 out of 5 playoff games and will likely take around 4 tonight. Horford has at least 1 in every playoff game and should see around 4 attempts as well. I trust both of the players to get us 1 tonight and Tatum could easily be the one assisting them for an open 3. For my other Tatum SGP, I’ll be going with Marcus Smart 2+ 3s. Smart has only cleared this in 3 out of 5 playoff games, but the volume will be there as he is averaging 7.6 attempts per game in the playoffs.
Plays: 0.35U 5+ Tatum assists / 1+ Williams 3 / 1+ Horford 3 -115
0.35U 5+ Tatum assists / 2+ Smart 3s -125
Similar to the Tatum/Williams/Horford play above, I’ll be going with two players not exactly known for their 3 point shooting to get us 1 each. Bobby Portis has at least 1+ 3 in 5 out of 6 playoff games with the 1 miss coming in a game where he only played 6 minutes. Portis should definitely be able to get us 1+ tonight on around 4-5 attempts. Jrue Holiday has hit a 3 in every playoff game and I think he’ll get there again tonight on 5+ attempts. I fully expect Boston to bring the help defensively on Giannis, leaving his teammates for good, open looks at 3.
Play: 0.35U Giannis 6+ assists / 1+ Portis 3 / 1+ Holiday 3 -125
If you’ve been here before, you know it’s hard for me to resist first quarter props, especially ones that are so consistent. As a little extra play, I’ll be going back to something that I’ve cashed in on multiple times this season. Smart and Tatum have recorded at least 1 1Q assist in every playoff game and Giannis has done it 5 out of 6 games, with the one miss coming when he had 15 points in the first quarter. They should all at least have 2-4 potential assists in the 1Q and at -140 for the SGP, I’ll take my chances.
Play: 0.7U Tatum 1+ 1Q assist / Smart 1+ 1Q assist / Giannis 1+ 1Q assist -140
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