Run it Back in Dallas

I’m back again today with another 1Q-centered writeup. Last game at Dallas was disappointing with Ayton taking 2 shots, no assists for Booker and Luka finishing with 7 1Q points on 3/10 shooting. I’ll be bringing the volume down from last game, but I still will have a lot of 1Q plays for this one. It would’ve been a massive swing if we got 2 more buckets from DA, 1 Booker assist and just 1 more Luka point.

The Suns only put up 20 points in the 1Q, but I’d be surprised to see them come out like they did in G3 again. I’m putting my trust back in Ayton, Booker, and CP3. Chris Paul has recorded 2+ assists in 7/9 playoff games and in one miss he had just 1. Booker has been impressively consistent in all 1Q categories, but I’ll be going with his points and rebounds for this one. He’s put up 6+ in 5 out of 6 games and has a rebound in every one. I also like that Booker can get us 6+ easily in 2 shots if he hits 3s or gets to the line. Ayton’s points was tough to lose last game, but he has cleared 4 points in 8 out of 9 playoff games, has a great matchup against Powell/Kleber, and we get a very nice buy low spot at 4+ 1Q points -270.

Plays:

0.5U Booker 6+ points 1Q / Booker 1+ 1Q rebound -125

0.5U Ayton 4+ points 1Q / Paul 2+ 1Q assists +105

0.1U Ayton 7+ points 1Q / Booker 10+ points 1Q / Doncic 10+ points 1Q +1500

I can’t help myself from going back to Luka’s 1Q props. He’s just so consistent, clearing 8+ points in G1 and G2 with 14 each and falling just short in G3 with 7 on 3/10 shooting. I think we’ll see similar volume tonight in the 1Q and I think Luka can get us 8+ on 8+ shots. He’s also cleared 2+ rebounds and 2+ assists every game this series with an astounding 7 boards and 5 assists last game. I fully believe he can finish the 1Q with a stat line like 10/4/4. It feels wrong to write about the Mavs without bringing up Reggie Bullock. I’ve personally cashed this SGP 5 times with Bullock and it has hit in 9 out of 9 playoff games. Bullock’s minutes are also increasing to the high 30s and he should easily hit 2+ threes and have a good chance at 4 boards again.

Plays:

0.5U Doncic 8+ points 1Q / Booker 6+ points 1Q -115

0.5U Doncic 2+ 1Q rebounds / Doncic 2+ 1Q assists / Paul 1+ 1Q assist -120

0.5U Doncic 2+ 1Q assists / Bullock 2+ threes -140

0.5U Bullock 2+ threes / Bullock 4+ boards -120