Redemption is coming tonight. Last night was brutal watching the Bucks and Celtics converting just 33% of Giannis’ and Tatum’s potential assists along with no Giannis block or Tatum steal, and the Warriors opening 0/15 from 3, but I still felt great about the reads and would play them again next game, hopefully at a better buy-low number.
Before I get into my usual 1Q stuff, I want to target this Sixers/Heat game for some nice defensive props. Jimmy Butler has been an elite defensive player in the playoffs, recording 2+ steals in every game. Jimmy has also been pretty consistent from downtown, recording 1+ three in every playoff game so far. Like Butler, Tobias Harris has hit 1+ three in every playoff game and has recorded 8! total steals in the series vs the Heat. DraftKings is giving us 1+ steal for Harris at -170, which is a steal in itself.
Plays:
0.58U Butler 1+ steal / Harris 1+ steal -115
0.6U Butler 1+ steal / Butler 1+ three / Harris 1+ three -120
It’s always good to look for correlation in SGPs and this next 1Q play has plenty. James Harden has 2+ 1Q assists in 8 out of 10 playoff games, including 4 out 4 with 2+ against the Heat so far. Embiid has cleared 6 points in the 1Q in 6 out of 8 playoff games and has 15 and 7 points vs the Heat. In the 2 games back with Embiid, 4 out of 5 of Harden’s 1Q assists went to Embiid!
Play:
0.65U Embiid 6+ points / Harden 2+ 1Q assists -130
“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” is something I live by in the sports betting world and that’s why I’m going back to a few 1Q plays that I’ve run previously and cashed on in this series. To start, I’m going with Devin Booker 7+ points / 1+ rebound in the 1Q. Book has hit both those numbers in 6 out of 7 playoff games, with the one miss coming when he only played 7 minutes and had 2 points after returning from a hamstring injury. Booker is fully back to playing the full 12 again and I’m expecting around 8+ and 1+ board again tonight.
Play:
0.58U Booker 7+ 1Q points / Booker 1+ 1Q rebound -115
If you’ve read a few of these writeups, you know I got to go back to Luka and Reggie again in this series. I’m personally rooting for the Suns to win this series, but would love for it to go 7 so we have more chances to bet on these guys. Bullock has been extremely consistent from behind the arc, with 2+ threes made in an astounding 10 out of 10 playoff games this season. Luka has also been impressively consistent, especially in the 1Q. Luka has cleared 8 points in 3 out of 4 games against the Suns, with the one miss being 7 points on 3/10 shooting. He’s also got 2+ rebounds and 2+ assists in every game this series, averaging 4.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists in the 1Q. I’m expecting another good 1Q from Luka and hopefully we can get a Luka to Reggie 1Q assist like these L2 games.
Plays:
0.5U Doncic 8+ 1Q points / Doncic 2+ 1Q rebounds / Doncic 2+ 1Q assists +115
0.65U Doncic 2+ 1Q assists / Bullock 2+ threes -130
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