Tonight I plan on running some G1 plays back and switching it up a bit because DraftKings nerfed Luka’s 1Q lines quite a bit. Last game we got Luka 2+ 1Q reb. / 2+ 1Q ast at -125 and today it’s at -175.
Let’s start out with some Steph and Draymond 1Q legs. They have both been very consistent in 1Q props and are the glue that holds the Warriors together. Curry will see the full 12 1Q minutes and Draymond can still get it done in 8-10 1Q minutes. Draymond has 1+ 1Q rebound in 11/12 playoff games, including the last 4 with 3+ 1Q rebounds. He also has 1+ 1Q assist in 10/12 playoff games and should have 3+ potential assists in the 1Q alone. When Curry has been fully healthy in the playoffs he has 1+ 1Q rebound in 6/7 playoff games (Memphis series + G1 vs Dallas) including 5 1Q rebounds last game. Curry also has 1+ 1Q assist in 7/7 of the full 12 minute 1Q games. Andrew Wiggins has been impressively consistent as well, with 1+ three in 12/12 playoff games and back to back games with 3+.
Plays:
0.63U Curry 1+ 1Q reb. / Curry 1+ 1Q ast. / Green 1+ 1Q reb. / Green 1+ 1Q ast. -125 (DK)
0.7U Curry 1+ 1Q reb. / Curry 1+ 1Q ast. / Wiggins 1+ three -140 (DK)
You already know it’s obligatory to have some Luka SGPs if the Mavs are playing. He led the league in 1Q PPG, was top 5 in 1Q APG, and was the only guard I saw on the 1Q RPG leaders list. In the playoffs when he’s been fully healthy like Curry and played the full 12 1Q minutes (L8 games), Luka has averaged 10.75 1Q PPG, 4.5 1Q RPG, and 2.75 1Q APG. He only got 1 1Q assist last game, but the potential assists were there.
Reggie Bullock has been a key part of the 3 and D supporting cast for the Mavs and has 2+ threes in 9/11 playoff games. Him and Luka will both have a high volume of threes again tonight and I think Reggie can get 2+ on 6+ 3PA and Luka can get 3+ on 8-10 3PA. Let’s make it 7 straight writeups with profit tonight.
Plays:
0.53U Doncic 2+ 1Q ast. / Doncic 2+ 1Q reb. / Curry 1+ 1Q reb. -105 (DK)
0.5U Doncic 9+ 1Q pts. / Doncic 3+ 1Q reb. +120 (DK)
0.5U Wiggins 1+ three / Bullock 2+ threes / Doncic 3+ threes +120 (DK)
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