These hit parlays are becoming my favorite thing to bet on in the MLB, like 1Q bets for the NBA. FanDuel has been more consistent with hit lines, but DraftKings has some weird lines out like -700 in the SGP feature for Straw or Rosario to get a hit for Cleveland.
For the first one, I’ll be going with Kyle Tucker of the Astros and Omar Narvaez of the Brewers to each record 1+ hit. Tucker is on a 12-game hit streak and is batting 3-5 lifetime against Dunning. Tucker also has an xBA of .336 on the sinker and .300 on the slider in 2022 – the two pitches that account for 70.7% of Dunning’s pitches. He’s averaging 4.4 ABs in his L10 so all we need is 1-4. Narvaez is on a 7-game hit streak and is hitting a ridiculous 5-7 against Bassitt.
Play: 1U Tucker 1+ hit / Narvaez 1+ hit +117 (DK)
For play #2, I’m going back to two guys who have been destroying righties and have made me plenty of units these last couple weeks. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros is averaging 1.9 hits in his L10 games and .344 vs righties, which are both splits that can’t be ignored. Like Tucker, he’s hitting 3-6 vs Dunning and he should pick up another hit tonight in a great matchup. Alvarez is also hitting both of Dunning’s main pitches well, with an xBA of .317 on the sinker and .338 on the slider. Luis Arraez of the Twins has arguably been the best hitter in the MLB this year, averaging 1.6 hits in the L10, .362 BA overall, and a big .401 against righties. Logan Gilbert throws his 4-seam fastball 55.2% of the time which Arraez is hitting at .464 with a massive run value of 14.
Play: 1.01U Alvarez 1+ hit / Arraez 1+ hit -101 (FD)
For play 3, I got a same game hit parlay with Brandon Drury of the Reds and Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks. Drury is on a 12-game hit streak and is averaging 1.5 hits over the L10. He also has some pretty good history against Zach Davies, hitting .333 in 9 ABs. He’s also hitting .345 this season against the sinker which is Davies’ main pitch at 48%. Marte is averaging 1.6 hits against the Reds this season with 0, 2, 2, and 2 hit games. Marte is also batting .800 in 5 ABs against Mahle and hitting 3rd tonight, giving him 4-5 ABs. Marte also hits the fastball well at .310 which Mahle throws 49.6% of the time.
Play: 1.05U Drury 1+ hit / Marte 1+ hit -105 (DK)
Last but not least, I got one more hit parlay with Rhys Hoskins of the Phillies and Xander Bogaerts of the Red Sox. Hoskins has been heating up recently, averaging 1.6 hits over his L5. Hoskins also has a great history vs Rogers, batting .455 in 13 ABs. Rogers also throws his 4-seam about half the time and it’s one of Hoskins’ best pitches to hit. Hitters are batting around .200 on Rogers’ changeup and slider this season, but hitting the 4-seam at .337. Bogaerts has 1+ hit in 9 of his L10 games and is hitting an impressive .375 vs lefties. It’s a small sample size, but Koenig is throwing his curveball and sinker 64.5% of the time total and those are Bogaerts two best pitches to hit on the season. Bogaerts is hitting .444 against the curveball and .366 against the sinker.
Play: 1.09U Hoskins 1+ hit / Bogaerts 1+ hit -109 (FD)
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