Carlos Correa has been a wagon for hits recently, averaging 2.0 hits in the L5 and 1.7 hits in the L10 and has 1+ in 9/10. He’s got a poor history vs Marco Gonzales at 2-16, but he didn’t have a hit in 9 ABs vs Logan Gilbert and picked up 2 against him last night. The guy is seeing the ball well right now. Gonzales’ main pitch is his sinker, which he throws 39.7% of the time. Correa has hit over .300 against the sinker every season since 2017 and is hitting .391 against it this season, with an SLG of .609. Marcell Ozuna has been a Nationals killer this season, averaging 1.8 hits in 5 games this season. Ozuna is also hitting a huge 6-9 against Fedde, with 2 HRs.
Play: 1.07U Correa 1+ hit / Ozuna 1+ hit -107 FD
After a 3-game cold streak, Paul Goldschmidt is all the way back with 9 hits in 3 games against the Pirates. I love the matchup against Roansy Contreras for Goldschmidt here. Contreras throws the 4 seam and the slider for a combined 80.2% of his pitches and Goldy is hitting .325 with a .577 SLG against the 4 seam and .365 with a .714 SLG against the slider. One player that does have great history against Marco Gonzales is Byron Buxton. Buxton is 4-7 against Gonzales with 3 HRs. I sprinkled Buxton’s HR prop at +360 and Ozuna’s at +350 on FD as well. This is my favorite play today.
Play: ★ 1.52U Goldschmidt 1+ hit / Buxton 1+ hit -101 DK
JD Martinez is a guy I’ve been going to for hit parlays a lot recently, and he’s got 1+ hit in 9/10 and 1+ in 26/30. The guy is a hit machine and has a decent history against Kaprelian, at 3-9. Martinez is also hitting .327 against righties and should be hitting in the front half of the lineup again. I like this spot for the Blue Jays after a rough loss to the Orioles last night and it’s usually not a bad idea to fade Bruce Zimmermann. Zimmermann has been pretty bad all season and has allowed 7, 5, and 6 earned runs in his last 3 starts.
Play: 1U JD Martinez 1+ hit / Blue Jays -1.5 +123 FD
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