Tag Archives: gambling

Sunday was bittersweet as we had to say goodbye to some first quarter prop heroes in Giannis, Jrue Holiday, and Devin Booker. But at least we get some more 1Q chances in these semis.

Jaylen Brown had 4+ 1Q points in 5/7 games last series against the Bucks and 1+ 1Q rebound in 7/7. I think that Jayson Tatum will draw a lot of defensive attention in this series and that the Celtics will need Jaylen Brown to step up early. For someone usually taking around 5 1Q FG, I think he can get 4 1Q pts and a 1Q board tonight. Brown also has a steal in 9/11 games in the playoffs and has 1+ steal in 4 of his last 5 games against the Heat.

Play:

0.5U Brown 4+ 1Q pts. / Brown 1+ 1Q reb. / Brown 1+ stl. +110 (DK)

Marcus Smart and Jayson Tatum have been equally consistent in 1Q assist props for the last few months. Smart had 5/6 games last series with 1+ 1Q assist, with the miss coming after he returned from injury and played just 7 1Q minutes. Tatum has 1+ 1Q assist in 10/11 playoff games and 1+ 1Q rebound in every single one.

Play:

0.55U Smart 1+ 1Q ast. / Tatum 1+ 1Q ast. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. -110 (DK)

Like Jaylen Brown, PJ Tucker has also been consistent in 1Q rebounding with 1+ 1Q rebound in 9/11 playoff games. In his 2 regular season games against the Celtics, Tucker had 4 1Q rebounds in both games. With Bam at the 5 and enough size on the floor for the Heat, I’m expecting Tucker to have a role like Bobby Portis did against the Celtics. Portis had 2+ 1Q rebounds in 5/7 games and 1+ in 7/7 in limited 1Q minutes. Jimmy Butler has 1+ 1Q rebound in 9/10 playoff games, including 7/10 with 2+ 1Q rebounds. Butler has been impressively consistent with steals in the playoffs with 2+ steals in 8/10 playoff games and 1+ in 10/10 games.

Plays:

0.5U Butler 1+ stl. / Tucker 2+ 1Q reb. +110 (DK)

0.55U Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ 1Q reb. / Brown 1+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. -110 (DK)

Shoutout to DraftKings for only moving these lines just a bit so that we can exploit this underrated market again.

I’ve written about both Luka and Booker plenty in the past and you already know they’re first quarter prop MVPs. Booker has cleared 6/1 easily every game this series, seeing the full 12 minutes in 4/5 games and averaging 10.4 1Q PPG and 2.8 1Q RPG He should take 5+ shots again and I think he’ll get 6 easily again tonight. Chris Paul has 2+ 1Q assists in 9 out of 11 playoff games, including 4/5 against the Mavs. Ayton had 2 1Q points last game but he only played 5 minutes due to foul trouble. One of those fouls came on an offensive foul call on a DA bucket and I think he can easily clear 4+ points on 2-3 shots tonight.

Plays:

0.7U Booker 6+ 1Q points / Booker 1+ 1Q rebound -140 (DK)

0.5U Ayton 4+ 1Q points / Paul 2+ 1Q assists +105 (DK)

0.63U Booker 6+ 1Q points / Luka 8+ 1Q points -125 (DK)

Luka has been equally impressive as Booker in the 1Q, averaging 11.0 1Q PPG, 4.0 1Q RPG, and 3.2 1Q APG on the full 12. He’s dropped 8+ in every 1Q besides G3 when he had 7 on 3/10 shooting. Luka also has 2+ assists and 2+ rebounds in every 1Q this series. Dorian Finney-Smith has a 3 in every playoff game this series except for G2 when he was in foul trouble and the Mavs got blown out. DFS has taken 23 threes at home in two games this series, making 12 of them. I think we could cash this one in the first quarter like the others.

Plays:

0.5U Doncic 8+ 1Q pts. / Doncic 2+ 1Q as./ Doncic 2+ 1Q reb. +110 (DK)

0.65U Doncic 2+ 1Q as. / Doncic 2+ 1Q reb. / Finney-Smith 1+ three -130 (DK)

Longshot:

0.15U Doncic 10+ 1Q pts. / Booker 8+ 1Q pts. / Ayton 6+ 1Q pts. / Paul 1+ 1Q as. / Doncic 2+ 1Q reb. / Doncic 2+ 1Q as. +1200 (DK)

I’m back again tonight with 3 plays I like for tonight’s games. We’ve run this same play in the past and I think the numbers do a good job of backing it up again.

Giannis averaged 8.0 assists in 4 games vs Boston, with 13.5 potential assists. This potential number feels low but I think it’s really more like 16-18 average because after G2, NBA.com said he had 5 potential with 7 actual assists, which makes no sense. Tatum has averaged 5.5 assists on the series with 13.0 potential assists. Last game, they both had 5 assists on 15 potential from Giannis and 13 from Tatum. I watched every Celtics and Bucks player miss every opportunity from JT and Giannis in the 1Q and I fully expect them to get us to 5 and 6 again with some better shooting tonight.

Play:

0.5U Giannis 6+ assists / Tatum 5+ assists +105 (DK)

I’m a big Tyus Jones guy. I bet his assists in some way in almost every game that Ja has been out and he’s been profitable for me in the past. Ja is out again tonight and I know that Tyus can get us 5+ assists full game. Last game, Jones had 2 1Q assists and in his L10 regular season games without Morant, he had 2+ 1Q assists in 9 out of 10 games, averaging 2.3. Jones had 5 assists in Game 4 on 12 potential and also has 5+ assists in the last 9 out of 10 regular season games without Ja, with the miss coming by one assist when he played just 23 minutes. I think that the Grizzlies need to come out hot if they want to keep the series alive and I can’t see either team shooting that poorly to start the game again.

Play:

0.65U Jones 2+ 1Q assists / Jones 5+ assists -130 (DK)

Draymond Green had 5 assists last game when the Warriors 24.3% from 3. He also had 19 potential assists and I think with the Warriors getting back to their game, he will have 8+ tonight. He had 8 and 7 assists in the L2 and 3 in G1 when he played 17 minutes. With 13.3 potential on the series, I think the number would be closer to 16 if he had played his full 30 minutes. The Warriors will do their best to close this series out and will need to hit more threes to do that.

Play:

0.62U Draymond Green O6.5 assists -124 (Bovada)

Redemption is coming tonight. Last night was brutal watching the Bucks and Celtics converting just 33% of Giannis’ and Tatum’s potential assists along with no Giannis block or Tatum steal, and the Warriors opening 0/15 from 3, but I still felt great about the reads and would play them again next game, hopefully at a better buy-low number.

Before I get into my usual 1Q stuff, I want to target this Sixers/Heat game for some nice defensive props. Jimmy Butler has been an elite defensive player in the playoffs, recording 2+ steals in every game. Jimmy has also been pretty consistent from downtown, recording 1+ three in every playoff game so far. Like Butler, Tobias Harris has hit 1+ three in every playoff game and has recorded 8! total steals in the series vs the Heat. DraftKings is giving us 1+ steal for Harris at -170, which is a steal in itself.

Plays:

0.58U Butler 1+ steal / Harris 1+ steal -115

0.6U Butler 1+ steal / Butler 1+ three / Harris 1+ three -120

It’s always good to look for correlation in SGPs and this next 1Q play has plenty. James Harden has 2+ 1Q assists in 8 out of 10 playoff games, including 4 out 4 with 2+ against the Heat so far. Embiid has cleared 6 points in the 1Q in 6 out of 8 playoff games and has 15 and 7 points vs the Heat. In the 2 games back with Embiid, 4 out of 5 of Harden’s 1Q assists went to Embiid!

Play:

0.65U Embiid 6+ points / Harden 2+ 1Q assists -130

“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” is something I live by in the sports betting world and that’s why I’m going back to a few 1Q plays that I’ve run previously and cashed on in this series. To start, I’m going with Devin Booker 7+ points / 1+ rebound in the 1Q. Book has hit both those numbers in 6 out of 7 playoff games, with the one miss coming when he only played 7 minutes and had 2 points after returning from a hamstring injury. Booker is fully back to playing the full 12 again and I’m expecting around 8+ and 1+ board again tonight.

Play:

0.58U Booker 7+ 1Q points / Booker 1+ 1Q rebound -115

If you’ve read a few of these writeups, you know I got to go back to Luka and Reggie again in this series. I’m personally rooting for the Suns to win this series, but would love for it to go 7 so we have more chances to bet on these guys. Bullock has been extremely consistent from behind the arc, with 2+ threes made in an astounding 10 out of 10 playoff games this season. Luka has also been impressively consistent, especially in the 1Q. Luka has cleared 8 points in 3 out of 4 games against the Suns, with the one miss being 7 points on 3/10 shooting. He’s also got 2+ rebounds and 2+ assists in every game this series, averaging 4.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists in the 1Q. I’m expecting another good 1Q from Luka and hopefully we can get a Luka to Reggie 1Q assist like these L2 games.

Plays:

0.5U Doncic 8+ 1Q points / Doncic 2+ 1Q rebounds / Doncic 2+ 1Q assists +115

0.65U Doncic 2+ 1Q assists / Bullock 2+ threes -130

Tonight I got a few SGPs per usual, featuring some defensive props in the Celtics and Bucks game and a nice looking 1Q spot in the Grizzlies/Warriors game.

The first player I’m looking to target tonight is Giannis. Giannis has been very consistent in the playoffs, averaging 29.6 PPG, 7.3 assists per game, and 1.5 blocks per game. Giannis has cleared this SGP of 25+ points / 6+ assists / 1+ block 4 times already in the playoffs and it would likely be more if he had 1 more point in G1 against the Celtics and had gotten more minutes if the Bulls/Bucks games were closer. I’m expecting him to see high 30s minutes again tonight and could see a 30 points and 8 assists kind of night for Giannis. Giannis is averaging about 15 potential assists in this series and will draw plenty of help again tonight, leading to open shots for his teammates.

Play: 0.5U Giannis 25+ points / Giannis 6+ assists / Giannis 1+ block +100

I’ll be looking to play another star and his consistent defensive numbers in Jayson Tatum. JT is averaging 2.0 steals on the series and after shooting 21.1% with 10 points in G3, I’m expecting him to clear 20 points in the 3Q or earlier. Tatum also has 1+ 1Q assist in every playoff game this season.

Play: 0.58U Tatum 20+ points / Tatum 1+ steal / Tatum 1+ 1Q assist -115

The Warriors are looking to take a commanding 3-1 series lead tonight and I’m expecting them to come out shooting early. Steph Curry has been an elite first quarter player in this series, playing the full 12 all 3 games and averaging 2.66 assists in the 1Q. DK is giving 2+ to us at -160 and to reduce the juice and get a nice 2nd leg, I’m going with Draymond Green 1+ 1Q assist. Draymond has 1+ 1Q assist in every playoff game this year except the one where he played 3 1Q minutes in G2.

Play: 0.63U Steph Curry 2+ 1Q assists / Draymond Green 1+ 1Q assist -125

I’m back again today with another 1Q-centered writeup. Last game at Dallas was disappointing with Ayton taking 2 shots, no assists for Booker and Luka finishing with 7 1Q points on 3/10 shooting. I’ll be bringing the volume down from last game, but I still will have a lot of 1Q plays for this one. It would’ve been a massive swing if we got 2 more buckets from DA, 1 Booker assist and just 1 more Luka point.

The Suns only put up 20 points in the 1Q, but I’d be surprised to see them come out like they did in G3 again. I’m putting my trust back in Ayton, Booker, and CP3. Chris Paul has recorded 2+ assists in 7/9 playoff games and in one miss he had just 1. Booker has been impressively consistent in all 1Q categories, but I’ll be going with his points and rebounds for this one. He’s put up 6+ in 5 out of 6 games and has a rebound in every one. I also like that Booker can get us 6+ easily in 2 shots if he hits 3s or gets to the line. Ayton’s points was tough to lose last game, but he has cleared 4 points in 8 out of 9 playoff games, has a great matchup against Powell/Kleber, and we get a very nice buy low spot at 4+ 1Q points -270.

Plays:

0.5U Booker 6+ points 1Q / Booker 1+ 1Q rebound -125

0.5U Ayton 4+ points 1Q / Paul 2+ 1Q assists +105

0.1U Ayton 7+ points 1Q / Booker 10+ points 1Q / Doncic 10+ points 1Q +1500

I can’t help myself from going back to Luka’s 1Q props. He’s just so consistent, clearing 8+ points in G1 and G2 with 14 each and falling just short in G3 with 7 on 3/10 shooting. I think we’ll see similar volume tonight in the 1Q and I think Luka can get us 8+ on 8+ shots. He’s also cleared 2+ rebounds and 2+ assists every game this series with an astounding 7 boards and 5 assists last game. I fully believe he can finish the 1Q with a stat line like 10/4/4. It feels wrong to write about the Mavs without bringing up Reggie Bullock. I’ve personally cashed this SGP 5 times with Bullock and it has hit in 9 out of 9 playoff games. Bullock’s minutes are also increasing to the high 30s and he should easily hit 2+ threes and have a good chance at 4 boards again.

Plays:

0.5U Doncic 8+ points 1Q / Booker 6+ points 1Q -115

0.5U Doncic 2+ 1Q rebounds / Doncic 2+ 1Q assists / Paul 1+ 1Q assist -120

0.5U Doncic 2+ 1Q assists / Bullock 2+ threes -140

0.5U Bullock 2+ threes / Bullock 4+ boards -120

Tonight, I’ll be looking to have a couple plays with Reggie Bullock involved. Bullock has been impressively consistent when it comes to 3-point shooting. He averaged 36% on the season and has hit 2+ threes in every playoff game this season. Bullock saw his minutes drop slightly and ended up fouling out last game, but I don’t see that happening again tonight. I don’t think he’ll see 40+ minutes like he did against the Jazz, but I think if he plays 35+ he’ll be able to get us 2+ 3s. Bullock almost exclusively takes 3s, and on 53 FGA in the playoffs, 49 of the attempts were 3s. He’s taken an average of 7.0 3s a game and I fully believe he will go at least 2 for 7 or better tonight. To go with his 2+ threes, I’ll be going to Bullock’s rebounds. All we need from Reggie for this one is 4+ boards. Bullock has cleared this every playoff game, averaging 6.0 rebounds. For an SGP that has hit 7 out of 7 playoff games, I think there’s a lot of value in -110.

Play: 0.55U Bullock 2+ 3s / Bullock 4+ rebounds -110 (DK)

I’ll also be going back to the two 1Q leading scorers in Luka Doncic and Devin Booker. Doncic averaged 9.5 points and 2.6 assists in the regular season and it seems that he is back to his full 12 1Q minutes. In Game 1, Luka had 14 points on 9 FGA and 2 assists while Booker had 13 points on 8 FGA. I expect both of them to take at least 5-6 shots and think that they both clear 8 points again easily. All we need from Book is 6+ and 7+ from Luka, which they could both get on 3-4 FGA. To go with Reggie 2+ threes again, I’m going with Luka 2+ 1Q assists. He has cleared this number in 3 out of 4 playoff games this season and all 13 playoff games vs the Clippers, with the one miss coming when he first returned from injury vs the Jazz and only played 9 1Q minutes. I think he’ll get 2+ dimes in 12 minutes tonight and there’s a decent chance one of those leads to a Bullock 3.

Plays: 0.65U Booker 6+ 1Q points / Doncic 7+ 1Q points -130 (DK)

0.5U Doncic 2+ 1Q assists / Bullock 2+ threes +100 (DK)

I plan on having plenty of exposure to Jayson Tatum and Giannis assist props tonight. In his 5 playoff games, Tatum has averaged 14.2 potential assists, while Giannis has averaged 15.2 potential assists. In Game 1 of the series, Tatum had 16 potential assists and Giannis had 17. Usually when looking at assist props, I look for lines that are half or less of their typical potential assists. Giannis’ line is set at O7.5 +115 (DK) and JT’s line is O5.5 -145 (DK). One thing I love about these plays is the quality of assists that Tatum and Giannis get. Many of their assists in G1 came from Tatum and Giannis driving past their defender, drawing help, and finding an open teammate for a clean shot. 5 out of 6 of Tatum’s G1 assists lead to 3 point shots and we know that Milwaukee struggles to defend the 3. Additionally, 7 of Giannis’ 12 assists lead to 3s for the Bucks.

Plays: 1.1U Tatum 5+ assists / Giannis 6+ assists -110 (DK)

0.1U Tatum 8+ assists / Giannis 8+ assists +650 (DK)

Since a high percentage of their assists lead to 3s from the Bucks and the Celtics, I’ll also be pairing Tatum and Giannis with 3PM props. I’ve got Tatum’s 5+ assists in a couple plays including Tatum 5+ with Grant Williams and Al Horford 1+ 3PM each. Williams has 1+ 3 in 4 out of 5 playoff games and will likely take around 4 tonight. Horford has at least 1 in every playoff game and should see around 4 attempts as well. I trust both of the players to get us 1 tonight and Tatum could easily be the one assisting them for an open 3. For my other Tatum SGP, I’ll be going with Marcus Smart 2+ 3s. Smart has only cleared this in 3 out of 5 playoff games, but the volume will be there as he is averaging 7.6 attempts per game in the playoffs.

Plays: 0.35U 5+ Tatum assists / 1+ Williams 3 / 1+ Horford 3 -115

0.35U 5+ Tatum assists / 2+ Smart 3s -125

Similar to the Tatum/Williams/Horford play above, I’ll be going with two players not exactly known for their 3 point shooting to get us 1 each. Bobby Portis has at least 1+ 3 in 5 out of 6 playoff games with the 1 miss coming in a game where he only played 6 minutes. Portis should definitely be able to get us 1+ tonight on around 4-5 attempts. Jrue Holiday has hit a 3 in every playoff game and I think he’ll get there again tonight on 5+ attempts. I fully expect Boston to bring the help defensively on Giannis, leaving his teammates for good, open looks at 3.

Play: 0.35U Giannis 6+ assists / 1+ Portis 3 / 1+ Holiday 3 -125

If you’ve been here before, you know it’s hard for me to resist first quarter props, especially ones that are so consistent. As a little extra play, I’ll be going back to something that I’ve cashed in on multiple times this season. Smart and Tatum have recorded at least 1 1Q assist in every playoff game and Giannis has done it 5 out of 6 games, with the one miss coming when he had 15 points in the first quarter. They should all at least have 2-4 potential assists in the 1Q and at -140 for the SGP, I’ll take my chances.

Play: 0.7U Tatum 1+ 1Q assist / Smart 1+ 1Q assist / Giannis 1+ 1Q assist -140