Tag Archives: mlb

1U S. Marte 1+ hit (NYM) / Jays F5 ML +110 FD

Marte vs a lefty and at home is the best time to play Starling for a hit. He’s batting .327 vs LHPs and .321 at home. In his last 20 at home, Marte has 1+ in 15 and is batting .405 in his last 20 at home vs lefties. Mike Minor has also been pretty bad against RHBs, allowing .318 BA to righties. In 4 road starts, Minor has given up an average of 6.5 hits with an ERA of 6.10 and I think Marte is in a great spot to get one today. Minor’s T3 vs RHBs consists of the 4-seam at 41.5%, the changeup at 31.1%, and the slider at 18.6%. Against LHPs Marte is batting .395/.280/.294 against those pitches.

I think the Jays are in a really good spot today. Bradish has improved since returning from shoulder injury, but the Jays are one of the best teams on the road and against RHPs. Bradish got lit up earlier this season by the Blue Jays and we get the Jays best pitcher in Manoah, who has pitched very well against the Orioles with a 0.67 WHIP and 2.46 ERA against the Orioles in 4 starts. Bradish has a .324 BA allowed at home to go with a 6.75 home ERA. In 149 RHBs faced, Bradish has allowed a .364 BA and the Jays are loaded with righties.

1U Guerrero Jr 1+ hit (TOR) / Arenado 1+ hit (STL) / Jays F5 +1.5 +103 FD

Vladdy has been heating up recently, with 1+ hit in 18 of his last 20 road games. He also has 1+ in 5 of 5 vs BAL this season and 19/20 with 1+ going back to last season. He’s batting .354 in his last 20 road games and is 2-3 against Bradish. Bradish is also allowing a huge .364 BA to RHBs. Vladdy is in the 94th percentile for xBA while Bradish is in the 7th for xBA. He’s hitting .385 post all-star break and .351 batting 2nd. Against Bradish’s T2 vs RHBs, Guerrero is batting .367/.252.

Arenado returns to Coors field with some great recent form, batting .400 in his L7 with 5 XBH. He gets a great matchup against Ryan Feltner, who has been bad vs RHBs and in general this season. Arenado is batting .356 post ASB, .312 vs righties on the season, and .409 his L7 vs RHPs. Against Feltner’s T3 vs RHBs, Arenado is batting .341/.250/.392 vs RHPs.

Added Jays F5 +1.5 to kill the juice on the Vladdy / Arenado play that was too juiced before.

0.75U Ohtani 1+ hit / Hoskins 1+ hit +113 FD

Hoskins is avg. 1.7 hits in the L10 and is hitting .308 vs Corbin in 30 ABs. I’m guessing he gets at least 5 ABs batting 2nd again if the Phillies can hit Corbin. Hoskins is hitting .365 in June and has 19 hits this month. Ohtani is on a 10-game hit streak and is hitting .300 this month. He’s also hitting .400 vs the 4-seam and .444 vs the slider in June – two pitches that Kirby throws for a combined 78.2% of the time. He’s pitching tonight but as long as he can go 6 innings I think he’ll pick up a hit. In 5 of 6 starts since May, Ohtani has 1+ hit.

Lineup: 2. Hoskins 2. Ohtani (projected)

0.75U Harper 1+ hit / Phillies ML -110 DK

I got some good hitting stats for this one but the only two I think you need to know are that Bryce Harper has 1+ hit in 17/18 games against the Nationals and it’s Patrick Corbin on the mound.

Lineup: 3. Harper

0.75U Choi 1+ hit /Judge 1+ hit +110 DK

Choi is on a 13-game hit streak and has 14 hits in June. I liked the original matchup against Severino, but just staying with the hot hand to make it 14 straight. Judge has 1+ hit in 8/10 and is batting .313 on the season and also hitting 3-6 but against Beeks. He hasn’t hit the changeup well this season, but he’s hitting the 4-seam at .387, a pitch Beeks throws 46.5% of the time. Judge has 1+ hit 24/30 games at home.

Lineup: 2. Judge 3. Choi

0.75U Garcia/Crawford +117 FD

Garcia has 5 games straight with 1+ hit and is hitting .063 BA points better vs righties. Should see 4-5 ABs and has 18 hits in June on a .318 average. Hitting .333 vs 4-seam (Brieske 52.8%), .368 vs slider (18.5%), and .333 vs changeup (21.8%) in June (93.1%). Crawford is hitting righties at .348 this season and his 1+ in 8/10. He’s also 2-5 vs Ohtani with a HR. Crawford’s also hitting the 4-seam well at .353 on the season – Ohtani’s main pitch at 41.4%.

Lineup: 3. Garcia 4. Crawford (projected)

Carlos Correa has been a wagon for hits recently, averaging 2.0 hits in the L5 and 1.7 hits in the L10 and has 1+ in 9/10. He’s got a poor history vs Marco Gonzales at 2-16, but he didn’t have a hit in 9 ABs vs Logan Gilbert and picked up 2 against him last night. The guy is seeing the ball well right now. Gonzales’ main pitch is his sinker, which he throws 39.7% of the time. Correa has hit over .300 against the sinker every season since 2017 and is hitting .391 against it this season, with an SLG of .609. Marcell Ozuna has been a Nationals killer this season, averaging 1.8 hits in 5 games this season. Ozuna is also hitting a huge 6-9 against Fedde, with 2 HRs.

Play: 1.07U Correa 1+ hit / Ozuna 1+ hit -107 FD

After a 3-game cold streak, Paul Goldschmidt is all the way back with 9 hits in 3 games against the Pirates. I love the matchup against Roansy Contreras for Goldschmidt here. Contreras throws the 4 seam and the slider for a combined 80.2% of his pitches and Goldy is hitting .325 with a .577 SLG against the 4 seam and .365 with a .714 SLG against the slider. One player that does have great history against Marco Gonzales is Byron Buxton. Buxton is 4-7 against Gonzales with 3 HRs. I sprinkled Buxton’s HR prop at +360 and Ozuna’s at +350 on FD as well. This is my favorite play today.

Play: ★ 1.52U Goldschmidt 1+ hit / Buxton 1+ hit -101 DK

JD Martinez is a guy I’ve been going to for hit parlays a lot recently, and he’s got 1+ hit in 9/10 and 1+ in 26/30. The guy is a hit machine and has a decent history against Kaprelian, at 3-9. Martinez is also hitting .327 against righties and should be hitting in the front half of the lineup again. I like this spot for the Blue Jays after a rough loss to the Orioles last night and it’s usually not a bad idea to fade Bruce Zimmermann. Zimmermann has been pretty bad all season and has allowed 7, 5, and 6 earned runs in his last 3 starts.

Play: 1U JD Martinez 1+ hit / Blue Jays -1.5 +123 FD