Tag Archives: NBA

These hit parlays are becoming my favorite thing to bet on in the MLB, like 1Q bets for the NBA. FanDuel has been more consistent with hit lines, but DraftKings has some weird lines out like -700 in the SGP feature for Straw or Rosario to get a hit for Cleveland.

For the first one, I’ll be going with Kyle Tucker of the Astros and Omar Narvaez of the Brewers to each record 1+ hit. Tucker is on a 12-game hit streak and is batting 3-5 lifetime against Dunning. Tucker also has an xBA of .336 on the sinker and .300 on the slider in 2022 – the two pitches that account for 70.7% of Dunning’s pitches. He’s averaging 4.4 ABs in his L10 so all we need is 1-4. Narvaez is on a 7-game hit streak and is hitting a ridiculous 5-7 against Bassitt.

Play: 1U Tucker 1+ hit / Narvaez 1+ hit +117 (DK)

For play #2, I’m going back to two guys who have been destroying righties and have made me plenty of units these last couple weeks. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros is averaging 1.9 hits in his L10 games and .344 vs righties, which are both splits that can’t be ignored. Like Tucker, he’s hitting 3-6 vs Dunning and he should pick up another hit tonight in a great matchup. Alvarez is also hitting both of Dunning’s main pitches well, with an xBA of .317 on the sinker and .338 on the slider. Luis Arraez of the Twins has arguably been the best hitter in the MLB this year, averaging 1.6 hits in the L10, .362 BA overall, and a big .401 against righties. Logan Gilbert throws his 4-seam fastball 55.2% of the time which Arraez is hitting at .464 with a massive run value of 14.

Play: 1.01U Alvarez 1+ hit / Arraez 1+ hit -101 (FD)

For play 3, I got a same game hit parlay with Brandon Drury of the Reds and Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks. Drury is on a 12-game hit streak and is averaging 1.5 hits over the L10. He also has some pretty good history against Zach Davies, hitting .333 in 9 ABs. He’s also hitting .345 this season against the sinker which is Davies’ main pitch at 48%. Marte is averaging 1.6 hits against the Reds this season with 0, 2, 2, and 2 hit games. Marte is also batting .800 in 5 ABs against Mahle and hitting 3rd tonight, giving him 4-5 ABs. Marte also hits the fastball well at .310 which Mahle throws 49.6% of the time.

Play: 1.05U Drury 1+ hit / Marte 1+ hit -105 (DK)

Last but not least, I got one more hit parlay with Rhys Hoskins of the Phillies and Xander Bogaerts of the Red Sox. Hoskins has been heating up recently, averaging 1.6 hits over his L5. Hoskins also has a great history vs Rogers, batting .455 in 13 ABs. Rogers also throws his 4-seam about half the time and it’s one of Hoskins’ best pitches to hit. Hitters are batting around .200 on Rogers’ changeup and slider this season, but hitting the 4-seam at .337. Bogaerts has 1+ hit in 9 of his L10 games and is hitting an impressive .375 vs lefties. It’s a small sample size, but Koenig is throwing his curveball and sinker 64.5% of the time total and those are Bogaerts two best pitches to hit on the season. Bogaerts is hitting .444 against the curveball and .366 against the sinker.

Play: 1.09U Hoskins 1+ hit / Bogaerts 1+ hit -109 (FD)

The 1Q bets have not been as kind to me these last 2 games as they were in the earlier rounds of the playoffs, so I’m adding something new today.

Besides Game 3 of the finals, Steph Curry and Draymond Green have been consistent almost all playoffs in each grabbing 1+ 1Q rebound and 1+ 1Q assist. In their last 10 playoff games, both Curry and Green have that 1+ 1Q rebound and 1+ 1Q assist combo 9/10 times. Steph will play the full 12 minutes and 8-10 minutes is enough for Draymond to grab a board and a dime.

Play:

0.65U Curry/Green 1+ 1Q ast. / Curry/Green 1+ 1Q reb. -130 (DK)

Both Marcus Smart and Robert Williams have been key defensive pieces for the Celtics in the playoffs and I think they continue that tonight. Marcus Smart has 1+ steals in 3 of 4 games in the series with 2, 1, 0, and 4 steals last game. Smart also has 1+ 1Q assist in 18/19 playoff games. Williams has been a block machine with 4, 2, 4, and 2 blocks on the series. Dating back to the Bucks vs. Celtics series, Timelord has 2+ blocks in 12/13 games with the one miss coming when he played just 15 minutes. Jaylen Brown and Andrew Wiggins have both been consistent from downtown in this series. Brown has 2+ threes in all 4 games with an average of 2.75 threes on 7.75 attempts while Wiggins has 1+ in all 4 games and almost every playoff game this season.

Plays:

0.55U Smart 1+ steals / Williams 2+ blocks -110 (DK)

0.65U Smart 1+ 1Q ast. / Wiggins 1+ three / Brown 2+ threes -130 (DK)

Now that the NBA is coming to a close, it’s time to switch gears and get some of my favorite MLB hit parlays out daily. I got 5 plus money hit parlays I like today.

For the first one I’m going with Christopher Morel of the Cubs and MJ Melendez of the Royals. Morel has 1+ in 19/21 games this season and -165 for someone getting 1+ hit 90% of the time is a bad line. Morel is hitting .313 vs RHPs on the season and will likely be leading off again today, giving him 4-5 chances at a hit. Melendez has a hit in 8 of his last 10 games and has been crushing lefties all season, hitting .400 and including a double vs Zimmermann. One thing I like about this one too is that Melendez is moving up the lineup from 6-8 to 5th which should be a confidence booster for him.

0.5U Morel 1+ hit / Melendez 1+ hit +149 (DK)

For the next one, I’ll be running an SGP with Garrett Cooper of the Marlins and Yordan Alvarez of the Astros. Both of these players have been on an absolute tear recently including 15/20 games between them with 2+ hits. Cooper’s got 8/10 with 2+ hits in his L10, is hitting .321 on the season vs RHPs, and will likely hit 2nd again today which should give him 4-5 plate appearances. Alvarez has 7/10 with 2+ hits and 9/10 with 1+, is also hitting righties at a clean .325 on the season, and will hit 4th tonight, likely giving him 4+ at-bats.

0.5U Cooper 1+ hit / Alvarez 1+ hit +110 (DK)

For my 3rd hit parlay, I’ll be running another SGP with Andres Gimenez of the Guardians and Ramon Laureano of the A’s. Gimenez and Laureano have 1+ hit in 9 of their last 10 games each and Laureano just ended a 12 game hit streak and I think he’ll bounce back today and he’s hitting 2nd, so he’ll have 4-5 at bats to do it. Blackburn also gives up .298 vs LHBs rather than .194 vs RHBs, so I like Gimenez to at least go 1-4 tonight. For 2 guys who both have 1+ in 9 of their last 10, I think there’s some nice value in +150.

0.5U Gimenez 1+ hit / Laureano 1+ hit +150 (DK)

For #4, I’m going with 2 guys that have been money for 1+ hit parlays this last month or so in Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals and Luis Arraez of the Twins. Goldschmidt is hitting .304 vs RHPs and .250 in 40 at bats vs Castillo. Goldy also has a hit in 28 of his last 30 while Arraez has 1+ in 24/30. Arraez is also shelling righties, hitting a whopping .398. Arraez is leading off again tonight and Goldschmidt is hitting 3rd, providing both players with 4-5 plate appearances tonight.

0.5U Goldschmidt 1+ hit / Arraez 1+ hit +102 (FD)

For the last play of the night, I got another hit parlay with Brandon Drury of the Reds and Jurickson Profar of the Padres. Like the Cooper and Alvarez play, both of these guys have been consistently hitting the ball. Drury has 9/10 with 1+ hit and 6/10 with 2+ hits while Profar has 8/10 with 1+ hit and is averaging 1.6 hits over his last 10. Pallante is also worse vs RHBs, allowing .316 rather than .143 vs LHBs. Profar also hits righties better and Chad Kuhl is a fadable pitcher. Drury is hitting 2nd tonight and Profar is likely hitting 1st, allowing for both of them to have 4-5 at bats.

0.5U Drury 1+ hit / Profar 1+ hit +103 (DK)

Last game was pretty rough and I ended up going 1-3 because Curry and Draymond didn’t grab any 1Q rebounds OR assists. Luckily, Looney came through and saved me from the reverse sweep. I’m back again today though with 4 plays I like for the 1Q in tonight’s Warriors vs Celtics matchup.

While I’m not fully confident in seeing Curry getting back to getting 2+ 1Q rebounds easily, I know that last game was a statistical 1Q anomaly for the Warriors as Draymond Green and Steph Curry both had 0 1Q rebounds and 0 1Q assists. Curry also only played 10 1Q minutes because of foul trouble. Draymond had 9 straight games with 1+ 1Q rebound and 1+ 1Q assist while Steph had 7 straight games with 2+ 1Q rebounds and 2+ 1Q assists. I think they’ll get back to their normal 1Q selves tonight in what feels like a must win game for the Warriors. I’ll also be going back to Kevon Looney tonight, who has 2+ 1Q rebounds and 2+ 1Q rebounds in 7 of his last 8 playoff games. This only gets me to -160, so I’m adding Steph Curry 1+ steal to get us to +105 on DK. Curry has 1+ steals in 5 straight, including 3, 3, and 2 steals on the series.

Plays:

0.6U Curry/Green 1+ 1Q ast. / Curry/Green 1+ 1Q reb. -120 (DK)

0.5U Looney 2+ 1Q pts. / Looney 2+ 1Q reb. / Curry 1+ steals +105 (DK)

The Celtics have been good to us in the 1Q and I think that continues again tonight. Jayson Tatum has 1+ 1Q rebound in 8 of his last 10, including 2 1Q rebounds in G2 and G3. Marcus Smart also has 1+ 1Q rebound in 8 of his last 10 and 12 straight playoff games with 1+ 1Q assist. He also tends to get an extra 1Q minute or two at home, which could be important for one board or one assist. Jaylen Brown has picked up the 1Q rebounding recently with 1+ 1Q rebound in 9 of his last 10, including 2, 3, and 5 1Q rebounds vs the Warriors.

Plays:

0.58U Curry / Tatum / Green / Brown 1+ 1Q reb. -115 (DK)

0.5U Brown 1+ 1Q reb. / Smart 1+ 1Q reb. / Smart 1+ 1Q ast. +100 (DK)

Every day that we get another chance to bet the 1Q player prop market is a good day. I got 4 plays that I like tonight for Game 3 in Boston.

Steph Curry has continued to put up great 1Q rebounding numbers in the playoffs, with 2+ 1Q rebounds in 10 straight. He’s also grabbed 4+ boards in 8 of his last 10 playoff games with both misses coming by the hook at 3. Curry also has 1+ 1Q assist in 10+ straight while Draymond Green has 1+ 1Q assist in 9 straight playoff games. Draymond also has 1+ 1Q rebound in 9 straight including 2 1Q rebounds and 2 1Q assists in Games 1 and 2 vs Boston. Kevon Looney has also been consistent for the Warriors in the 1Q recently and all we need from him tonight is 2 and 2. In his last 7 playoff games, dating back to the start of the Mavs series, Looney has 2+ 1Q points and 2+ 1Q rebounds in 6/7.

Plays:

0.65U Curry 2+ 1Q reb. / Curry 4+ reb. -130 (DK)

0.55U Looney 2+ 1Q pts. / Looney 2+ 1Q reb. -110 (DK)

The Celtics have also been consistent enough in the 1Q to bring me back in. Marcus Smart has 1+ 1Q assist in 11 straight playoff games. Jaylen Brown has 1+ 1Q rebound in 9 of his last 10 playoff games, including 2 and 3 1Q rebounds vs the Warriors in G1 and G2. Tatum has 1+ 1Q rebound in 8 of his last 10 playoff games but in one of those, the Heat had 39 1Q points which is an anomaly.

Plays:

0.65U Curry / Green / Tatum / Brown 1+ 1Q reb. -130 (DK)

0.5U Curry 2+ 1Q reb. / Smart 1+ 1Q ast. +105 (DK)

It feels good to be back again with the 1Q market tonight. I got 4 plays that I love for tonight’s Game 2 between the Boston Celtics and the Golden State Warriors.

Steph Curry has been a monster in the 1Q rebounding domain. He’s got 3+ 1Q rebounds in 6 straight and 2+ in 9 of his last 10 playoff games. Curry also has 1+ 1Q assist in 10 straight. Draymond Green has 1+ 1Q rebound and 1+ 1Q assist in 8 straight and has gotten there many times in the playoffs. Andrew Wiggins has also been consistent, with 1+ 1Q rebound in 9 of his last 10 playoff games.

Plays:

0.55U Curry 2+ 1Q reb. / Curry 4+ reb. -110 (DK)

0.68U Curry/Green 1+ 1Q reb. / Curry/Green 1+ 1Q ast. -135 (DK)

Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart have also been consistent in 1Q stats in the playoffs. Tatum has 1+ 1Q rebound in 8 of his last 10 while Brown has 1+ 1Q rebound in 9 of his last 10. Tatum didn’t grab one in the 1Q of Game 1, but I think he’ll get 2+ for us tonight. Smart has 1+ 1Q assist in 10 of his last 10 playoff games.

Plays:

0.65U Curry/Green/Tatum/Brown 1+ 1Q reb. -130 (DK)

0.65U Smart 1+ 1Q ast. / Curry/Wiggins 1+ 1Q reb. -130 (DK)

After a two game removal of first quarter player props, DraftKings has finally brought them back. We get a nice chance to pair some players that have treated us well in the past.

Steph Curry has emerged as one of the best 1Q prop players in the playoffs and I think he’ll continue the streak in this series. Curry has 1+ 1Q assist and 1+ 1Q rebound in his last 10 playoff games, including averages of 3.8 1Q RPG and 2.8 1Q APG in the Golden State-Dallas series. Curry also has 3+ rebounds in every playoff game except for one when he had just 2. Draymond Green has 1+ 1Q assist and 1+ 1Q rebound in 8 of his last 10 and has only missed this 1 and 1 number 3 times in the playoffs. Andrew Wiggins has also been impressively consistent with 1+ three in every playoff game except the last game, where he went 0-7 from deep.

Plays:

0.55U Curry 1+ 1Q reb. / Curry 1+ 1Q ast. / Green 1+ 1Q reb. / Green 1+ 1Q ast. -110 (DK)

0.5U Curry 2+ 1Q reb. / Curry 3+ reb. +105 (DK)

On the other side of the court, the Celtics have also been pretty consistent when it comes to 1Q player props. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both have 1+ 1Q rebound in 9 of their last 10 playoff games with the misses both coming in that G3 when the Heat finished the 1Q up by 20+ points. Tatum also has 6+ rebounds and 4+ assists in 9 of his last 10 playoff games and I expect him to do it all again this series. Lastly, Marcus Smart has 1+ 1Q assist in the last 9/10, with the miss coming when he returned from injury against the Bucks and played 7 1Q minutes.

Plays:

0.6U Curry 1+ 1Q reb. / Green 1+ 1Q reb. / Brown 1+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. -120 (DK)

0.58U Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 4+ ast. / Tatum 6+ reb. -115 (DK)

0.6U Curry 1+ 1Q ast. / Smart 1+ 1Q ast. / Wiggins 1+ three -120 (DK)

Tonight I’ll be running back some 1Q SGPs that have been successful in the series and looking for redemption on the missed Jimmy steal in a blowout. All I’m really asking for is not a 1Q blowout like the last three Heat/Celtics games.

Jimmy has 1+ steal in every playoff game besides the last game. He also has 1+ 1Q rebound in 13/14 playoff games and 2+ 1Q rebounds in 6 straight. I also think we’ll see closeout Jimmy Butler in the 1Q tonight. In the last two games of the series vs the Sixers and the Hawks, Butler averaged 9.25 1Q PPG in 4.

PJ Tucker has also been consistent in 1Q rebounding with 1+ 1Q rebound in every game this series, including two regular season games vs Boston with 4 1Q rebounds. Tucker also tends to shoot the ball more frequently at home and has 1+ three in 11/15 playoff games.

Plays:

0.6U Butler 2+ 1Q reb. / Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. -120 (DK)

0.6U Butler 2+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ steals -120 (DK)

0.55U Butler 6+ 1Q pts. / Butler 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ steals -110 (DK)

0.65U Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. / Tucker 1+ three -130

I’m putting all my trust in Jimmy to get some 1Q rebounds and I also think that Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum can get us 1+ 1Q rebound each. They both missed in G3, but the Heat had 39 1Q points. Tatum has 1+ 1Q board in 14/15 playoff games and Brown has 1+ 1Q rebound in 12/15 playoff games with 11 straight before that G3 1Q blowout.

Play:

0.6U Brown 1+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ 1Q reb. / Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. -120 (DK)

Steph Curry has really filled up the stat sheet in the 1Q this series, averaging 4.33 1Q RPG and 2.33 1Q APG. He also has 1+ 1Q assist and 1+ 1Q rebound in 8 straight playoff games. Draymond Green also has 1+ 1Q assist/rebound in 5 straight playoff games. I’ll keep adding Andrew Wiggins 1+ three to my SGPs because he’s hit 1+ in every playoff game. Wiggins also has 1+ 1Q rebound in 6 straight and in 12/14 playoff games.

Plays:

0.63U Curry 1+ 1Q ast. / Wiggins 1+ 1Q reb. / Green 1+ 1Q reb./ Wiggins 1+ three -125 (DK)

0.7U Curry 1+ 1Q reb. / Green 1+ 1Q reb. / Curry 1+ 1Q ast. / Green 1+ 1Q ast. -140 (DK)

DK is finally opening Luka’s 1Q points at 10, but this could be my last chance to bet Luka in the 1Q and he has been the best 1Q player in the NBA these playoffs. Since coming back to 100% and playing the full 12 1Q minutes, Doncic has 10+ 1Q points and 3+ 1Q rebounds in 7/10 playoff games (Phoenix and Golden State series). I expect Luka to have plenty of volume in the 1Q and in the game because it could be his last this season.

Doncic has 3+ threes in 4 straight playoff games and will also take 8-12 threes tonight. I think he knocks down 3+ again easily tonight. Reggie Bullock is also in a good spot to bounce back at home tonight after going 0/7 from deep in G3. He should see 6+ threes tonight and I’m confident he can hit 2 in a must win game.

Plays:

0.5U Doncic 3+ 1Q reb. / Curry 1+ 1Q reb. / Wiggins 1+ three +105 (DK)

0.5U Doncic 10+ 1Q pts. / Doncic 3+ 1Q reb. +105 (DK)

0.58U Wiggins 1+ three / Bullock 2+ threes / Doncic 3+ threes -115 (DK)

Last Heat/Celtics game we went 1-3, but it was not a normal 1Q for either team, finishing 39-18 for the Heat over the Celtics. I’m running a few of those plays back plus a new one tonight.

I’ve been adding Jimmy Butler 1+ steal to 75% of my SGPs for the Heat in the playoffs and it hasn’t failed me yet. Butler has a steal in every playoff game this season. He also has 2+ 1Q rebounds in 5 straight games and in 10/13 playoff games. PJ Tucker and Jayson Tatum have also been consistent in 1Q rebounding in the playoffs. PJ has 2, 4, and 2 1Q rebounds in the series so far and Tatum has a 1Q rebound in every playoff game except for the last game when the Heat put up 39 1Q points and Tatum only played 7 1Q minutes.

Max Strus has been a part of the Heat’s playoff success and I expect his consistent 3 point shooting to continue tonight. Strus has 2+ threes in 12/14 playoff games and 2+ in 8 straight. Strus also has 1+ 1Q rebound in 12/14 playoff games, including 2+ 1Q boards in 5 of his last 6.

Plays:

0.63U Butler 2+ 1Q reb. / Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. -125 (DK)

0.68U Butler 2+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ steal -135 (DK)

0.63U Strus 2+ threes / Strus 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ steal -125 (DK)

0.63U Butler 1+ 1Q reb. / Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ steal -125 (DK)