Tag Archives: NBA

1Q props have been very good to us recently so I’ll be running back some 1Q plays in this Heat at Celtics Game 3. I have 4 plays tonight and they depend on Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum rebounding the ball in the 1Q.

In 12 playoff games, Jimmy has 1+ 1Q rebound in 11 and 2+ 1Q rebounds in the last 4. Butler will see 10+ 1Q minutes and is hunting for rebounds. He also has a steal in every playoff game and I’d be shocked if that streak ended tonight. We only need one PJ Tucker 1Q rebound tonight and he seems probable to play tonight. He’s had 4 1Q rebounds in 3/4 games against the Celtics this season and G1 and G2. PJ and Jimmy both really go after every rebound they can get and I think they can get us a couple in the 1Q.

Plays:

0.7U Butler 2+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ steal -140 (DK)

0.63U Butler 2+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. -125 (DK)

Tatum has 2+ 1Q rebounds 4 of his last 5, 1+ 1Q rebound in every playoff game, and 1+ 1Q assist in 12/13 playoff games. Jaylen Brown also has 1+ 1Q rebound in 9 straight. Marcus Smart has a 1Q assist in 10/11 playoff games and had 4 last game against the Heat. We only need one from him tonight and he’s averaging 17.0 potential assists in his L2 games.

Plays:

0.5U Brown 1+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. / Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ 1Q reb. +110 (DK)

0.6U Smart 1+ 1Q ast. / Tatum 1+ 1Q ast. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. -120 (DK)

Tonight I plan on running some G1 plays back and switching it up a bit because DraftKings nerfed Luka’s 1Q lines quite a bit. Last game we got Luka 2+ 1Q reb. / 2+ 1Q ast at -125 and today it’s at -175.

Let’s start out with some Steph and Draymond 1Q legs. They have both been very consistent in 1Q props and are the glue that holds the Warriors together. Curry will see the full 12 1Q minutes and Draymond can still get it done in 8-10 1Q minutes. Draymond has 1+ 1Q rebound in 11/12 playoff games, including the last 4 with 3+ 1Q rebounds. He also has 1+ 1Q assist in 10/12 playoff games and should have 3+ potential assists in the 1Q alone. When Curry has been fully healthy in the playoffs he has 1+ 1Q rebound in 6/7 playoff games (Memphis series + G1 vs Dallas) including 5 1Q rebounds last game. Curry also has 1+ 1Q assist in 7/7 of the full 12 minute 1Q games. Andrew Wiggins has been impressively consistent as well, with 1+ three in 12/12 playoff games and back to back games with 3+.

Plays:

0.63U Curry 1+ 1Q reb. / Curry 1+ 1Q ast. / Green 1+ 1Q reb. / Green 1+ 1Q ast. -125 (DK)

0.7U Curry 1+ 1Q reb. / Curry 1+ 1Q ast. / Wiggins 1+ three -140 (DK)

You already know it’s obligatory to have some Luka SGPs if the Mavs are playing. He led the league in 1Q PPG, was top 5 in 1Q APG, and was the only guard I saw on the 1Q RPG leaders list. In the playoffs when he’s been fully healthy like Curry and played the full 12 1Q minutes (L8 games), Luka has averaged 10.75 1Q PPG, 4.5 1Q RPG, and 2.75 1Q APG. He only got 1 1Q assist last game, but the potential assists were there.

Reggie Bullock has been a key part of the 3 and D supporting cast for the Mavs and has 2+ threes in 9/11 playoff games. Him and Luka will both have a high volume of threes again tonight and I think Reggie can get 2+ on 6+ 3PA and Luka can get 3+ on 8-10 3PA. Let’s make it 7 straight writeups with profit tonight.

Plays:

0.53U Doncic 2+ 1Q ast. / Doncic 2+ 1Q reb. / Curry 1+ 1Q reb. -105 (DK)

0.5U Doncic 9+ 1Q pts. / Doncic 3+ 1Q reb. +120 (DK)

0.5U Wiggins 1+ three / Bullock 2+ threes / Doncic 3+ threes +120 (DK)

I’m back tonight with 5 more 1Q plays for Game 2 between the Celtics and the Heat. We were pretty successful last time going 2-1-1 with the loss coming a point short from Jaylen Brown who went 1/4 in the 1Q. I’m going to be running some of these plays back plus some new variations. Let’s try to make it 6 straight writeups with profit.

I’d run that Jaylen Brown play back again but DK opened his points at 5 instead of 4 which is a much better number for 1Q pts. However, Brown still has 1+ 1Q rebound in 10 straight playoff games. Jayson Tatum has 1+ 1Q assist in 11/12 playoff games and 1+ 1Q rebound in every playoff game, including 3+ 1Q rebounds in 4 of the last 5. It’s looking like Al Horford may be out again tonight, leaving plenty of opportunity for Tatum and Brown to grab some boards early. Derrick White is also out for the Celtics and even though Marcus Smart is returning from injury again, I think he’ll play 9+ 1Q minutes, giving him plenty of time for 1+ 1Q assist which Smart has in 9/10 playoff games.

Plays:

0.63U Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 1+ 1Q ast. / Smart 1+ 1Q ast. -125 (DK)

1.15U Brown 1+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ 1Q reb. / Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. -115 (DK)

Jimmy Butler has arguably been one of the best players in the playoffs this season and I’m expecting him to get off to a good start again tonight at home. He’s been rebounding the ball very well recently early with 2+ 1Q rebounds in 8/11 playoff games and 3 straight games with 3+ 1Q rebounds. PJ Tucker is also rebounding the ball well early, with 2 1Q rebounds last game and 4 twice in each 1Q in the regular season. I’ve been throwing Jimmy Butler 1+ steals into SGPs all playoffs and he has 1+ in 11/11 games with 2+ in 9/11 games. I watched him get back to back steals against the Celtics last game and I think he gets another 2+ tonight at home where the Heat play better.

Plays:

0.5U Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 2+ steals +110 (DK)

0.65U Butler 2+ 1Q reb. / Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. -130 (DK)

0.55U Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 2+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ steal -110 (DK)

It’s time for some more first quarter plays in this Game 1 between the Mavs and the Warriors. Let’s make it five straight profitable writeups tonight.

I couldn’t write up a first quarter article with the Mavs involved with talking about Luka Doncic. Luka led the league in 1Q scoring in the regular season and has been seeing the full 12 1Q minutes every game he’s been healthy. He’s averaging 8.9 1Q PPG, 4.2 1Q RPG, and 2.7 1Q APG in the playoffs. Luka hit 8/2/2 in every game against the Suns besides one where he had 7 points on 3/10 shooting. Ja also put up 2+ boards and 2+ assists in the 1Q against the Warriors in 2/3 games, so I definitely think Luka can too.

In his L2 regular season games against the Warriors, Reggie Bullock had 4 threes in both. Bullock also has 2+ 3s in 11/13 playoff games. Hopefully we can get another 1Q Luka assist to a Reggie 3.

Plays:

0.63U Doncic 2+ 1Q reb. / Doncic 2+ 1Q ast. -125 (DK)

0.53U Doncic 2+ 1Q ast. / Bullock 2+ 3s -105 (DK)

0.65U Doncic 8+ 1Q pts. / Doncic 2+ 1Q reb. -130 (DK)

Similar to Luka, Steph Curry’s 1Q numbers in the playoffs increased as he returned from injury and got back to the full 12 against the Grizzlies. Curry had 1+ 1Q rebound and 1+ 1Q assist in 5/6 games against Memphis, averaging 1.67 1Q RPG and 2.33 1Q APG in the series. Draymond has also been consistent in the 1Q for the Warriors, averaging 2.83 1Q RPG and 1.83 1Q APG against the Grizzlies. All we need from both of them tonight is 1+ 1Q assist and 1+ 1Q rebound.

We also just need 1+ 3 from Andrew Wiggins, who has hit 1+ 3 in 11/11 playoff games this season.

Plays:

0.63U Curry 1+ 1Q ast./Curry 1+ 1Q reb./Green 1+ 1Q ast./Green 1+ 1Q reb. -125 (DK)

0.63U Curry 1+ 1Q ast. / Curry 1+ 1Q reb. / Wiggins 1+ three -125 (DK)

Sunday was bittersweet as we had to say goodbye to some first quarter prop heroes in Giannis, Jrue Holiday, and Devin Booker. But at least we get some more 1Q chances in these semis.

Jaylen Brown had 4+ 1Q points in 5/7 games last series against the Bucks and 1+ 1Q rebound in 7/7. I think that Jayson Tatum will draw a lot of defensive attention in this series and that the Celtics will need Jaylen Brown to step up early. For someone usually taking around 5 1Q FG, I think he can get 4 1Q pts and a 1Q board tonight. Brown also has a steal in 9/11 games in the playoffs and has 1+ steal in 4 of his last 5 games against the Heat.

Play:

0.5U Brown 4+ 1Q pts. / Brown 1+ 1Q reb. / Brown 1+ stl. +110 (DK)

Marcus Smart and Jayson Tatum have been equally consistent in 1Q assist props for the last few months. Smart had 5/6 games last series with 1+ 1Q assist, with the miss coming after he returned from injury and played just 7 1Q minutes. Tatum has 1+ 1Q assist in 10/11 playoff games and 1+ 1Q rebound in every single one.

Play:

0.55U Smart 1+ 1Q ast. / Tatum 1+ 1Q ast. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. -110 (DK)

Like Jaylen Brown, PJ Tucker has also been consistent in 1Q rebounding with 1+ 1Q rebound in 9/11 playoff games. In his 2 regular season games against the Celtics, Tucker had 4 1Q rebounds in both games. With Bam at the 5 and enough size on the floor for the Heat, I’m expecting Tucker to have a role like Bobby Portis did against the Celtics. Portis had 2+ 1Q rebounds in 5/7 games and 1+ in 7/7 in limited 1Q minutes. Jimmy Butler has 1+ 1Q rebound in 9/10 playoff games, including 7/10 with 2+ 1Q rebounds. Butler has been impressively consistent with steals in the playoffs with 2+ steals in 8/10 playoff games and 1+ in 10/10 games.

Plays:

0.5U Butler 1+ stl. / Tucker 2+ 1Q reb. +110 (DK)

0.55U Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ 1Q reb. / Brown 1+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. -110 (DK)

Shoutout to DraftKings for only moving these lines just a bit so that we can exploit this underrated market again.

I’ve written about both Luka and Booker plenty in the past and you already know they’re first quarter prop MVPs. Booker has cleared 6/1 easily every game this series, seeing the full 12 minutes in 4/5 games and averaging 10.4 1Q PPG and 2.8 1Q RPG He should take 5+ shots again and I think he’ll get 6 easily again tonight. Chris Paul has 2+ 1Q assists in 9 out of 11 playoff games, including 4/5 against the Mavs. Ayton had 2 1Q points last game but he only played 5 minutes due to foul trouble. One of those fouls came on an offensive foul call on a DA bucket and I think he can easily clear 4+ points on 2-3 shots tonight.

Plays:

0.7U Booker 6+ 1Q points / Booker 1+ 1Q rebound -140 (DK)

0.5U Ayton 4+ 1Q points / Paul 2+ 1Q assists +105 (DK)

0.63U Booker 6+ 1Q points / Luka 8+ 1Q points -125 (DK)

Luka has been equally impressive as Booker in the 1Q, averaging 11.0 1Q PPG, 4.0 1Q RPG, and 3.2 1Q APG on the full 12. He’s dropped 8+ in every 1Q besides G3 when he had 7 on 3/10 shooting. Luka also has 2+ assists and 2+ rebounds in every 1Q this series. Dorian Finney-Smith has a 3 in every playoff game this series except for G2 when he was in foul trouble and the Mavs got blown out. DFS has taken 23 threes at home in two games this series, making 12 of them. I think we could cash this one in the first quarter like the others.

Plays:

0.5U Doncic 8+ 1Q pts. / Doncic 2+ 1Q as./ Doncic 2+ 1Q reb. +110 (DK)

0.65U Doncic 2+ 1Q as. / Doncic 2+ 1Q reb. / Finney-Smith 1+ three -130 (DK)

Longshot:

0.15U Doncic 10+ 1Q pts. / Booker 8+ 1Q pts. / Ayton 6+ 1Q pts. / Paul 1+ 1Q as. / Doncic 2+ 1Q reb. / Doncic 2+ 1Q as. +1200 (DK)

I’m back again tonight with 3 plays I like for tonight’s games. We’ve run this same play in the past and I think the numbers do a good job of backing it up again.

Giannis averaged 8.0 assists in 4 games vs Boston, with 13.5 potential assists. This potential number feels low but I think it’s really more like 16-18 average because after G2, NBA.com said he had 5 potential with 7 actual assists, which makes no sense. Tatum has averaged 5.5 assists on the series with 13.0 potential assists. Last game, they both had 5 assists on 15 potential from Giannis and 13 from Tatum. I watched every Celtics and Bucks player miss every opportunity from JT and Giannis in the 1Q and I fully expect them to get us to 5 and 6 again with some better shooting tonight.

Play:

0.5U Giannis 6+ assists / Tatum 5+ assists +105 (DK)

I’m a big Tyus Jones guy. I bet his assists in some way in almost every game that Ja has been out and he’s been profitable for me in the past. Ja is out again tonight and I know that Tyus can get us 5+ assists full game. Last game, Jones had 2 1Q assists and in his L10 regular season games without Morant, he had 2+ 1Q assists in 9 out of 10 games, averaging 2.3. Jones had 5 assists in Game 4 on 12 potential and also has 5+ assists in the last 9 out of 10 regular season games without Ja, with the miss coming by one assist when he played just 23 minutes. I think that the Grizzlies need to come out hot if they want to keep the series alive and I can’t see either team shooting that poorly to start the game again.

Play:

0.65U Jones 2+ 1Q assists / Jones 5+ assists -130 (DK)

Draymond Green had 5 assists last game when the Warriors 24.3% from 3. He also had 19 potential assists and I think with the Warriors getting back to their game, he will have 8+ tonight. He had 8 and 7 assists in the L2 and 3 in G1 when he played 17 minutes. With 13.3 potential on the series, I think the number would be closer to 16 if he had played his full 30 minutes. The Warriors will do their best to close this series out and will need to hit more threes to do that.

Play:

0.62U Draymond Green O6.5 assists -124 (Bovada)