Tag Archives: propbets

After a two game removal of first quarter player props, DraftKings has finally brought them back. We get a nice chance to pair some players that have treated us well in the past.

Steph Curry has emerged as one of the best 1Q prop players in the playoffs and I think he’ll continue the streak in this series. Curry has 1+ 1Q assist and 1+ 1Q rebound in his last 10 playoff games, including averages of 3.8 1Q RPG and 2.8 1Q APG in the Golden State-Dallas series. Curry also has 3+ rebounds in every playoff game except for one when he had just 2. Draymond Green has 1+ 1Q assist and 1+ 1Q rebound in 8 of his last 10 and has only missed this 1 and 1 number 3 times in the playoffs. Andrew Wiggins has also been impressively consistent with 1+ three in every playoff game except the last game, where he went 0-7 from deep.

Plays:

0.55U Curry 1+ 1Q reb. / Curry 1+ 1Q ast. / Green 1+ 1Q reb. / Green 1+ 1Q ast. -110 (DK)

0.5U Curry 2+ 1Q reb. / Curry 3+ reb. +105 (DK)

On the other side of the court, the Celtics have also been pretty consistent when it comes to 1Q player props. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both have 1+ 1Q rebound in 9 of their last 10 playoff games with the misses both coming in that G3 when the Heat finished the 1Q up by 20+ points. Tatum also has 6+ rebounds and 4+ assists in 9 of his last 10 playoff games and I expect him to do it all again this series. Lastly, Marcus Smart has 1+ 1Q assist in the last 9/10, with the miss coming when he returned from injury against the Bucks and played 7 1Q minutes.

Plays:

0.6U Curry 1+ 1Q reb. / Green 1+ 1Q reb. / Brown 1+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. -120 (DK)

0.58U Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 4+ ast. / Tatum 6+ reb. -115 (DK)

0.6U Curry 1+ 1Q ast. / Smart 1+ 1Q ast. / Wiggins 1+ three -120 (DK)

Tonight I’ll be running back some 1Q SGPs that have been successful in the series and looking for redemption on the missed Jimmy steal in a blowout. All I’m really asking for is not a 1Q blowout like the last three Heat/Celtics games.

Jimmy has 1+ steal in every playoff game besides the last game. He also has 1+ 1Q rebound in 13/14 playoff games and 2+ 1Q rebounds in 6 straight. I also think we’ll see closeout Jimmy Butler in the 1Q tonight. In the last two games of the series vs the Sixers and the Hawks, Butler averaged 9.25 1Q PPG in 4.

PJ Tucker has also been consistent in 1Q rebounding with 1+ 1Q rebound in every game this series, including two regular season games vs Boston with 4 1Q rebounds. Tucker also tends to shoot the ball more frequently at home and has 1+ three in 11/15 playoff games.

Plays:

0.6U Butler 2+ 1Q reb. / Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. -120 (DK)

0.6U Butler 2+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ steals -120 (DK)

0.55U Butler 6+ 1Q pts. / Butler 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ steals -110 (DK)

0.65U Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. / Tucker 1+ three -130

I’m putting all my trust in Jimmy to get some 1Q rebounds and I also think that Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum can get us 1+ 1Q rebound each. They both missed in G3, but the Heat had 39 1Q points. Tatum has 1+ 1Q board in 14/15 playoff games and Brown has 1+ 1Q rebound in 12/15 playoff games with 11 straight before that G3 1Q blowout.

Play:

0.6U Brown 1+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ 1Q reb. / Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. -120 (DK)

Steph Curry has really filled up the stat sheet in the 1Q this series, averaging 4.33 1Q RPG and 2.33 1Q APG. He also has 1+ 1Q assist and 1+ 1Q rebound in 8 straight playoff games. Draymond Green also has 1+ 1Q assist/rebound in 5 straight playoff games. I’ll keep adding Andrew Wiggins 1+ three to my SGPs because he’s hit 1+ in every playoff game. Wiggins also has 1+ 1Q rebound in 6 straight and in 12/14 playoff games.

Plays:

0.63U Curry 1+ 1Q ast. / Wiggins 1+ 1Q reb. / Green 1+ 1Q reb./ Wiggins 1+ three -125 (DK)

0.7U Curry 1+ 1Q reb. / Green 1+ 1Q reb. / Curry 1+ 1Q ast. / Green 1+ 1Q ast. -140 (DK)

DK is finally opening Luka’s 1Q points at 10, but this could be my last chance to bet Luka in the 1Q and he has been the best 1Q player in the NBA these playoffs. Since coming back to 100% and playing the full 12 1Q minutes, Doncic has 10+ 1Q points and 3+ 1Q rebounds in 7/10 playoff games (Phoenix and Golden State series). I expect Luka to have plenty of volume in the 1Q and in the game because it could be his last this season.

Doncic has 3+ threes in 4 straight playoff games and will also take 8-12 threes tonight. I think he knocks down 3+ again easily tonight. Reggie Bullock is also in a good spot to bounce back at home tonight after going 0/7 from deep in G3. He should see 6+ threes tonight and I’m confident he can hit 2 in a must win game.

Plays:

0.5U Doncic 3+ 1Q reb. / Curry 1+ 1Q reb. / Wiggins 1+ three +105 (DK)

0.5U Doncic 10+ 1Q pts. / Doncic 3+ 1Q reb. +105 (DK)

0.58U Wiggins 1+ three / Bullock 2+ threes / Doncic 3+ threes -115 (DK)

Last Heat/Celtics game we went 1-3, but it was not a normal 1Q for either team, finishing 39-18 for the Heat over the Celtics. I’m running a few of those plays back plus a new one tonight.

I’ve been adding Jimmy Butler 1+ steal to 75% of my SGPs for the Heat in the playoffs and it hasn’t failed me yet. Butler has a steal in every playoff game this season. He also has 2+ 1Q rebounds in 5 straight games and in 10/13 playoff games. PJ Tucker and Jayson Tatum have also been consistent in 1Q rebounding in the playoffs. PJ has 2, 4, and 2 1Q rebounds in the series so far and Tatum has a 1Q rebound in every playoff game except for the last game when the Heat put up 39 1Q points and Tatum only played 7 1Q minutes.

Max Strus has been a part of the Heat’s playoff success and I expect his consistent 3 point shooting to continue tonight. Strus has 2+ threes in 12/14 playoff games and 2+ in 8 straight. Strus also has 1+ 1Q rebound in 12/14 playoff games, including 2+ 1Q boards in 5 of his last 6.

Plays:

0.63U Butler 2+ 1Q reb. / Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. -125 (DK)

0.68U Butler 2+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ steal -135 (DK)

0.63U Strus 2+ threes / Strus 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ steal -125 (DK)

0.63U Butler 1+ 1Q reb. / Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ steal -125 (DK)

1Q props have been very good to us recently so I’ll be running back some 1Q plays in this Heat at Celtics Game 3. I have 4 plays tonight and they depend on Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum rebounding the ball in the 1Q.

In 12 playoff games, Jimmy has 1+ 1Q rebound in 11 and 2+ 1Q rebounds in the last 4. Butler will see 10+ 1Q minutes and is hunting for rebounds. He also has a steal in every playoff game and I’d be shocked if that streak ended tonight. We only need one PJ Tucker 1Q rebound tonight and he seems probable to play tonight. He’s had 4 1Q rebounds in 3/4 games against the Celtics this season and G1 and G2. PJ and Jimmy both really go after every rebound they can get and I think they can get us a couple in the 1Q.

Plays:

0.7U Butler 2+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ steal -140 (DK)

0.63U Butler 2+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. -125 (DK)

Tatum has 2+ 1Q rebounds 4 of his last 5, 1+ 1Q rebound in every playoff game, and 1+ 1Q assist in 12/13 playoff games. Jaylen Brown also has 1+ 1Q rebound in 9 straight. Marcus Smart has a 1Q assist in 10/11 playoff games and had 4 last game against the Heat. We only need one from him tonight and he’s averaging 17.0 potential assists in his L2 games.

Plays:

0.5U Brown 1+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. / Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ 1Q reb. +110 (DK)

0.6U Smart 1+ 1Q ast. / Tatum 1+ 1Q ast. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. -120 (DK)

Tonight I plan on running some G1 plays back and switching it up a bit because DraftKings nerfed Luka’s 1Q lines quite a bit. Last game we got Luka 2+ 1Q reb. / 2+ 1Q ast at -125 and today it’s at -175.

Let’s start out with some Steph and Draymond 1Q legs. They have both been very consistent in 1Q props and are the glue that holds the Warriors together. Curry will see the full 12 1Q minutes and Draymond can still get it done in 8-10 1Q minutes. Draymond has 1+ 1Q rebound in 11/12 playoff games, including the last 4 with 3+ 1Q rebounds. He also has 1+ 1Q assist in 10/12 playoff games and should have 3+ potential assists in the 1Q alone. When Curry has been fully healthy in the playoffs he has 1+ 1Q rebound in 6/7 playoff games (Memphis series + G1 vs Dallas) including 5 1Q rebounds last game. Curry also has 1+ 1Q assist in 7/7 of the full 12 minute 1Q games. Andrew Wiggins has been impressively consistent as well, with 1+ three in 12/12 playoff games and back to back games with 3+.

Plays:

0.63U Curry 1+ 1Q reb. / Curry 1+ 1Q ast. / Green 1+ 1Q reb. / Green 1+ 1Q ast. -125 (DK)

0.7U Curry 1+ 1Q reb. / Curry 1+ 1Q ast. / Wiggins 1+ three -140 (DK)

You already know it’s obligatory to have some Luka SGPs if the Mavs are playing. He led the league in 1Q PPG, was top 5 in 1Q APG, and was the only guard I saw on the 1Q RPG leaders list. In the playoffs when he’s been fully healthy like Curry and played the full 12 1Q minutes (L8 games), Luka has averaged 10.75 1Q PPG, 4.5 1Q RPG, and 2.75 1Q APG. He only got 1 1Q assist last game, but the potential assists were there.

Reggie Bullock has been a key part of the 3 and D supporting cast for the Mavs and has 2+ threes in 9/11 playoff games. Him and Luka will both have a high volume of threes again tonight and I think Reggie can get 2+ on 6+ 3PA and Luka can get 3+ on 8-10 3PA. Let’s make it 7 straight writeups with profit tonight.

Plays:

0.53U Doncic 2+ 1Q ast. / Doncic 2+ 1Q reb. / Curry 1+ 1Q reb. -105 (DK)

0.5U Doncic 9+ 1Q pts. / Doncic 3+ 1Q reb. +120 (DK)

0.5U Wiggins 1+ three / Bullock 2+ threes / Doncic 3+ threes +120 (DK)

I’m back tonight with 5 more 1Q plays for Game 2 between the Celtics and the Heat. We were pretty successful last time going 2-1-1 with the loss coming a point short from Jaylen Brown who went 1/4 in the 1Q. I’m going to be running some of these plays back plus some new variations. Let’s try to make it 6 straight writeups with profit.

I’d run that Jaylen Brown play back again but DK opened his points at 5 instead of 4 which is a much better number for 1Q pts. However, Brown still has 1+ 1Q rebound in 10 straight playoff games. Jayson Tatum has 1+ 1Q assist in 11/12 playoff games and 1+ 1Q rebound in every playoff game, including 3+ 1Q rebounds in 4 of the last 5. It’s looking like Al Horford may be out again tonight, leaving plenty of opportunity for Tatum and Brown to grab some boards early. Derrick White is also out for the Celtics and even though Marcus Smart is returning from injury again, I think he’ll play 9+ 1Q minutes, giving him plenty of time for 1+ 1Q assist which Smart has in 9/10 playoff games.

Plays:

0.63U Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 1+ 1Q ast. / Smart 1+ 1Q ast. -125 (DK)

1.15U Brown 1+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ 1Q reb. / Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. -115 (DK)

Jimmy Butler has arguably been one of the best players in the playoffs this season and I’m expecting him to get off to a good start again tonight at home. He’s been rebounding the ball very well recently early with 2+ 1Q rebounds in 8/11 playoff games and 3 straight games with 3+ 1Q rebounds. PJ Tucker is also rebounding the ball well early, with 2 1Q rebounds last game and 4 twice in each 1Q in the regular season. I’ve been throwing Jimmy Butler 1+ steals into SGPs all playoffs and he has 1+ in 11/11 games with 2+ in 9/11 games. I watched him get back to back steals against the Celtics last game and I think he gets another 2+ tonight at home where the Heat play better.

Plays:

0.5U Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 2+ steals +110 (DK)

0.65U Butler 2+ 1Q reb. / Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. -130 (DK)

0.55U Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 2+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ steal -110 (DK)

It’s time for some more first quarter plays in this Game 1 between the Mavs and the Warriors. Let’s make it five straight profitable writeups tonight.

I couldn’t write up a first quarter article with the Mavs involved with talking about Luka Doncic. Luka led the league in 1Q scoring in the regular season and has been seeing the full 12 1Q minutes every game he’s been healthy. He’s averaging 8.9 1Q PPG, 4.2 1Q RPG, and 2.7 1Q APG in the playoffs. Luka hit 8/2/2 in every game against the Suns besides one where he had 7 points on 3/10 shooting. Ja also put up 2+ boards and 2+ assists in the 1Q against the Warriors in 2/3 games, so I definitely think Luka can too.

In his L2 regular season games against the Warriors, Reggie Bullock had 4 threes in both. Bullock also has 2+ 3s in 11/13 playoff games. Hopefully we can get another 1Q Luka assist to a Reggie 3.

Plays:

0.63U Doncic 2+ 1Q reb. / Doncic 2+ 1Q ast. -125 (DK)

0.53U Doncic 2+ 1Q ast. / Bullock 2+ 3s -105 (DK)

0.65U Doncic 8+ 1Q pts. / Doncic 2+ 1Q reb. -130 (DK)

Similar to Luka, Steph Curry’s 1Q numbers in the playoffs increased as he returned from injury and got back to the full 12 against the Grizzlies. Curry had 1+ 1Q rebound and 1+ 1Q assist in 5/6 games against Memphis, averaging 1.67 1Q RPG and 2.33 1Q APG in the series. Draymond has also been consistent in the 1Q for the Warriors, averaging 2.83 1Q RPG and 1.83 1Q APG against the Grizzlies. All we need from both of them tonight is 1+ 1Q assist and 1+ 1Q rebound.

We also just need 1+ 3 from Andrew Wiggins, who has hit 1+ 3 in 11/11 playoff games this season.

Plays:

0.63U Curry 1+ 1Q ast./Curry 1+ 1Q reb./Green 1+ 1Q ast./Green 1+ 1Q reb. -125 (DK)

0.63U Curry 1+ 1Q ast. / Curry 1+ 1Q reb. / Wiggins 1+ three -125 (DK)

Sunday was bittersweet as we had to say goodbye to some first quarter prop heroes in Giannis, Jrue Holiday, and Devin Booker. But at least we get some more 1Q chances in these semis.

Jaylen Brown had 4+ 1Q points in 5/7 games last series against the Bucks and 1+ 1Q rebound in 7/7. I think that Jayson Tatum will draw a lot of defensive attention in this series and that the Celtics will need Jaylen Brown to step up early. For someone usually taking around 5 1Q FG, I think he can get 4 1Q pts and a 1Q board tonight. Brown also has a steal in 9/11 games in the playoffs and has 1+ steal in 4 of his last 5 games against the Heat.

Play:

0.5U Brown 4+ 1Q pts. / Brown 1+ 1Q reb. / Brown 1+ stl. +110 (DK)

Marcus Smart and Jayson Tatum have been equally consistent in 1Q assist props for the last few months. Smart had 5/6 games last series with 1+ 1Q assist, with the miss coming after he returned from injury and played just 7 1Q minutes. Tatum has 1+ 1Q assist in 10/11 playoff games and 1+ 1Q rebound in every single one.

Play:

0.55U Smart 1+ 1Q ast. / Tatum 1+ 1Q ast. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. -110 (DK)

Like Jaylen Brown, PJ Tucker has also been consistent in 1Q rebounding with 1+ 1Q rebound in 9/11 playoff games. In his 2 regular season games against the Celtics, Tucker had 4 1Q rebounds in both games. With Bam at the 5 and enough size on the floor for the Heat, I’m expecting Tucker to have a role like Bobby Portis did against the Celtics. Portis had 2+ 1Q rebounds in 5/7 games and 1+ in 7/7 in limited 1Q minutes. Jimmy Butler has 1+ 1Q rebound in 9/10 playoff games, including 7/10 with 2+ 1Q rebounds. Butler has been impressively consistent with steals in the playoffs with 2+ steals in 8/10 playoff games and 1+ in 10/10 games.

Plays:

0.5U Butler 1+ stl. / Tucker 2+ 1Q reb. +110 (DK)

0.55U Tucker 1+ 1Q reb. / Butler 1+ 1Q reb. / Brown 1+ 1Q reb. / Tatum 1+ 1Q reb. -110 (DK)