sports – MBets Best Bets

Blue Jays F5 Stack

1U S. Marte 1+ hit (NYM) / Jays F5 ML +110 FD

Marte vs a lefty and at home is the best time to play Starling for a hit. He’s batting .327 vs LHPs and .321 at home. In his last 20 at home, Marte has 1+ in 15 and is batting .405 in his last 20 at home vs lefties. Mike Minor has also been pretty bad against RHBs, allowing .318 BA to righties. In 4 road starts, Minor has given up an average of 6.5 hits with an ERA of 6.10 and I think Marte is in a great spot to get one today. Minor’s T3 vs RHBs consists of the 4-seam at 41.5%, the changeup at 31.1%, and the slider at 18.6%. Against LHPs Marte is batting .395/.280/.294 against those pitches.

I think the Jays are in a really good spot today. Bradish has improved since returning from shoulder injury, but the Jays are one of the best teams on the road and against RHPs. Bradish got lit up earlier this season by the Blue Jays and we get the Jays best pitcher in Manoah, who has pitched very well against the Orioles with a 0.67 WHIP and 2.46 ERA against the Orioles in 4 starts. Bradish has a .324 BA allowed at home to go with a 6.75 home ERA. In 149 RHBs faced, Bradish has allowed a .364 BA and the Jays are loaded with righties.

1U Guerrero Jr 1+ hit (TOR) / Arenado 1+ hit (STL) / Jays F5 +1.5 +103 FD

Vladdy has been heating up recently, with 1+ hit in 18 of his last 20 road games. He also has 1+ in 5 of 5 vs BAL this season and 19/20 with 1+ going back to last season. He’s batting .354 in his last 20 road games and is 2-3 against Bradish. Bradish is also allowing a huge .364 BA to RHBs. Vladdy is in the 94th percentile for xBA while Bradish is in the 7th for xBA. He’s hitting .385 post all-star break and .351 batting 2nd. Against Bradish’s T2 vs RHBs, Guerrero is batting .367/.252.

Arenado returns to Coors field with some great recent form, batting .400 in his L7 with 5 XBH. He gets a great matchup against Ryan Feltner, who has been bad vs RHBs and in general this season. Arenado is batting .356 post ASB, .312 vs righties on the season, and .409 his L7 vs RHPs. Against Feltner’s T3 vs RHBs, Arenado is batting .341/.250/.392 vs RHPs.

Added Jays F5 +1.5 to kill the juice on the Vladdy / Arenado play that was too juiced before.

4 Hit Parlays for Friday Night

Brantley 1+ hit / Daza 1+ hit -116 0.58U

Brantley has 1+ hit in 11 straight and is 6-12 vs Giolito with 2 HRs. The line should be more like -350 or -400 like it is for JD Martinez. Brantley is hitting .276 vs the 4-seam (Giolito @48.6%), .355 vs the slider (24.1%), and .314 vs the changeup (22.7%). I really like this Daza angle. He’s batting .449 vs lefties, is 2-2 against Gore, and is averaging 1.8 hits in the L10. Gore throws the 4-seam 63.6% of the time (next is curveball at 17.4%) and Daza is hitting .476 against the 4-seam.

Lineup: 2. Brantley, 5. Daza (projected)

Pham 1+ hit / Correa 1+ hit -104 0.52U

Pham is 4-7 vs Lauer and has 1+ in 6 straight games. His best pitch to hit is the 4-seam at .319 which is Lauer’s main pitch at 40.5%. Pham’s also hitting a little angrily which I like after the Giants wore those fantasy football warmup shirts to troll him. Correa is hitting .333 vs lefties, is 2-7 with a HR vs Bumgarner since 2020 (not including 0-4 against SF Bumgarner in 2015), has 1+ in 7 straight, 1+ in his last 9/10 and 1.8 per game in the last 5. Hitters are having the most success this season against Bumgarner’s cutter (.270, 42.8%) and 4-seam (.321, 28.1%) and Correa is hitting .385 against the cutter and .365 against the 4-seam this season.

Lineup: 3. Pham, 2. Correa

Judge 1+ hit / Guerrero Jr. 1+ hit -120 1.2U

Judge is 3-8 vs Stripling and hasn’t gone more than one game without a hit all season and he didn’t get one last game (15/15 after O-fer). Judge’s 3 best pitches to hit are the 4-seam at .387, the curveball at .357, and the slider at .333. Stripling throws the 4-seam at 33.6%, the slider at 22.5%, and the curveball at 11.3% for a total of 66.4%. Vladdy has 1+ in 7 straight – averaging 2.2 hits in the last 5. He’s got 5 straight with a hit against the Yankees, is 3-9 against Montgomery with a HR, and is hitting .344 vs lefties this season.

Lineup: 1. Judge, 3. Guerrero Jr.

Ohtani 1+ hit / Crawford 1+ hit +135 0.5U

Ohtani has 1+ hit in 11 straight and is averaging 1.8 hits in the last 5. Crawford is mashing against righties at .346 on the season and has a hit in 17/20 games (BA .305) against the Angels in his career. Crawford is also batting .333 vs the sinker (Lorenzen at 29.6%) and .345 vs the 4-seam (21.3%) – Lorenzen’s 2 main pitches.

Lineup: 3. Ohtani (projected), 1. Crawford (projected)

4 MLB Plays for the 6/16 Night Slate

0.75U Ohtani 1+ hit / Hoskins 1+ hit +113 FD

Hoskins is avg. 1.7 hits in the L10 and is hitting .308 vs Corbin in 30 ABs. I’m guessing he gets at least 5 ABs batting 2nd again if the Phillies can hit Corbin. Hoskins is hitting .365 in June and has 19 hits this month. Ohtani is on a 10-game hit streak and is hitting .300 this month. He’s also hitting .400 vs the 4-seam and .444 vs the slider in June – two pitches that Kirby throws for a combined 78.2% of the time. He’s pitching tonight but as long as he can go 6 innings I think he’ll pick up a hit. In 5 of 6 starts since May, Ohtani has 1+ hit.

Lineup: 2. Hoskins 2. Ohtani (projected)

0.75U Harper 1+ hit / Phillies ML -110 DK

I got some good hitting stats for this one but the only two I think you need to know are that Bryce Harper has 1+ hit in 17/18 games against the Nationals and it’s Patrick Corbin on the mound.

Lineup: 3. Harper

0.75U Choi 1+ hit /Judge 1+ hit +110 DK

Choi is on a 13-game hit streak and has 14 hits in June. I liked the original matchup against Severino, but just staying with the hot hand to make it 14 straight. Judge has 1+ hit in 8/10 and is batting .313 on the season and also hitting 3-6 but against Beeks. He hasn’t hit the changeup well this season, but he’s hitting the 4-seam at .387, a pitch Beeks throws 46.5% of the time. Judge has 1+ hit 24/30 games at home.

Lineup: 2. Judge 3. Choi

0.75U Garcia/Crawford +117 FD

Garcia has 5 games straight with 1+ hit and is hitting .063 BA points better vs righties. Should see 4-5 ABs and has 18 hits in June on a .318 average. Hitting .333 vs 4-seam (Brieske 52.8%), .368 vs slider (18.5%), and .333 vs changeup (21.8%) in June (93.1%). Crawford is hitting righties at .348 this season and his 1+ in 8/10. He’s also 2-5 vs Ohtani with a HR. Crawford’s also hitting the 4-seam well at .353 on the season – Ohtani’s main pitch at 41.4%.

Lineup: 3. Garcia 4. Crawford (projected)

3 Plays for Wednesday’s MLB Slate

Carlos Correa has been a wagon for hits recently, averaging 2.0 hits in the L5 and 1.7 hits in the L10 and has 1+ in 9/10. He’s got a poor history vs Marco Gonzales at 2-16, but he didn’t have a hit in 9 ABs vs Logan Gilbert and picked up 2 against him last night. The guy is seeing the ball well right now. Gonzales’ main pitch is his sinker, which he throws 39.7% of the time. Correa has hit over .300 against the sinker every season since 2017 and is hitting .391 against it this season, with an SLG of .609. Marcell Ozuna has been a Nationals killer this season, averaging 1.8 hits in 5 games this season. Ozuna is also hitting a huge 6-9 against Fedde, with 2 HRs.

Play: 1.07U Correa 1+ hit / Ozuna 1+ hit -107 FD

After a 3-game cold streak, Paul Goldschmidt is all the way back with 9 hits in 3 games against the Pirates. I love the matchup against Roansy Contreras for Goldschmidt here. Contreras throws the 4 seam and the slider for a combined 80.2% of his pitches and Goldy is hitting .325 with a .577 SLG against the 4 seam and .365 with a .714 SLG against the slider. One player that does have great history against Marco Gonzales is Byron Buxton. Buxton is 4-7 against Gonzales with 3 HRs. I sprinkled Buxton’s HR prop at +360 and Ozuna’s at +350 on FD as well. This is my favorite play today.

Play: ★ 1.52U Goldschmidt 1+ hit / Buxton 1+ hit -101 DK

JD Martinez is a guy I’ve been going to for hit parlays a lot recently, and he’s got 1+ hit in 9/10 and 1+ in 26/30. The guy is a hit machine and has a decent history against Kaprelian, at 3-9. Martinez is also hitting .327 against righties and should be hitting in the front half of the lineup again. I like this spot for the Blue Jays after a rough loss to the Orioles last night and it’s usually not a bad idea to fade Bruce Zimmermann. Zimmermann has been pretty bad all season and has allowed 7, 5, and 6 earned runs in his last 3 starts.

Play: 1U JD Martinez 1+ hit / Blue Jays -1.5 +123 FD

4 Hit Parlays for Tuesday’s MLB Slate

These hit parlays are becoming my favorite thing to bet on in the MLB, like 1Q bets for the NBA. FanDuel has been more consistent with hit lines, but DraftKings has some weird lines out like -700 in the SGP feature for Straw or Rosario to get a hit for Cleveland.

For the first one, I’ll be going with Kyle Tucker of the Astros and Omar Narvaez of the Brewers to each record 1+ hit. Tucker is on a 12-game hit streak and is batting 3-5 lifetime against Dunning. Tucker also has an xBA of .336 on the sinker and .300 on the slider in 2022 – the two pitches that account for 70.7% of Dunning’s pitches. He’s averaging 4.4 ABs in his L10 so all we need is 1-4. Narvaez is on a 7-game hit streak and is hitting a ridiculous 5-7 against Bassitt.

Play: 1U Tucker 1+ hit / Narvaez 1+ hit +117 (DK)

For play #2, I’m going back to two guys who have been destroying righties and have made me plenty of units these last couple weeks. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros is averaging 1.9 hits in his L10 games and .344 vs righties, which are both splits that can’t be ignored. Like Tucker, he’s hitting 3-6 vs Dunning and he should pick up another hit tonight in a great matchup. Alvarez is also hitting both of Dunning’s main pitches well, with an xBA of .317 on the sinker and .338 on the slider. Luis Arraez of the Twins has arguably been the best hitter in the MLB this year, averaging 1.6 hits in the L10, .362 BA overall, and a big .401 against righties. Logan Gilbert throws his 4-seam fastball 55.2% of the time which Arraez is hitting at .464 with a massive run value of 14.

Play: 1.01U Alvarez 1+ hit / Arraez 1+ hit -101 (FD)

For play 3, I got a same game hit parlay with Brandon Drury of the Reds and Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks. Drury is on a 12-game hit streak and is averaging 1.5 hits over the L10. He also has some pretty good history against Zach Davies, hitting .333 in 9 ABs. He’s also hitting .345 this season against the sinker which is Davies’ main pitch at 48%. Marte is averaging 1.6 hits against the Reds this season with 0, 2, 2, and 2 hit games. Marte is also batting .800 in 5 ABs against Mahle and hitting 3rd tonight, giving him 4-5 ABs. Marte also hits the fastball well at .310 which Mahle throws 49.6% of the time.

Play: 1.05U Drury 1+ hit / Marte 1+ hit -105 (DK)

Last but not least, I got one more hit parlay with Rhys Hoskins of the Phillies and Xander Bogaerts of the Red Sox. Hoskins has been heating up recently, averaging 1.6 hits over his L5. Hoskins also has a great history vs Rogers, batting .455 in 13 ABs. Rogers also throws his 4-seam about half the time and it’s one of Hoskins’ best pitches to hit. Hitters are batting around .200 on Rogers’ changeup and slider this season, but hitting the 4-seam at .337. Bogaerts has 1+ hit in 9 of his L10 games and is hitting an impressive .375 vs lefties. It’s a small sample size, but Koenig is throwing his curveball and sinker 64.5% of the time total and those are Bogaerts two best pitches to hit on the season. Bogaerts is hitting .444 against the curveball and .366 against the sinker.

Play: 1.09U Hoskins 1+ hit / Bogaerts 1+ hit -109 (FD)

3 #Smart Plays for Game 5

The 1Q bets have not been as kind to me these last 2 games as they were in the earlier rounds of the playoffs, so I’m adding something new today.

Besides Game 3 of the finals, Steph Curry and Draymond Green have been consistent almost all playoffs in each grabbing 1+ 1Q rebound and 1+ 1Q assist. In their last 10 playoff games, both Curry and Green have that 1+ 1Q rebound and 1+ 1Q assist combo 9/10 times. Steph will play the full 12 minutes and 8-10 minutes is enough for Draymond to grab a board and a dime.

Play:

0.65U Curry/Green 1+ 1Q ast. / Curry/Green 1+ 1Q reb. -130 (DK)

Both Marcus Smart and Robert Williams have been key defensive pieces for the Celtics in the playoffs and I think they continue that tonight. Marcus Smart has 1+ steals in 3 of 4 games in the series with 2, 1, 0, and 4 steals last game. Smart also has 1+ 1Q assist in 18/19 playoff games. Williams has been a block machine with 4, 2, 4, and 2 blocks on the series. Dating back to the Bucks vs. Celtics series, Timelord has 2+ blocks in 12/13 games with the one miss coming when he played just 15 minutes. Jaylen Brown and Andrew Wiggins have both been consistent from downtown in this series. Brown has 2+ threes in all 4 games with an average of 2.75 threes on 7.75 attempts while Wiggins has 1+ in all 4 games and almost every playoff game this season.

Plays:

0.55U Smart 1+ steals / Williams 2+ blocks -110 (DK)

0.65U Smart 1+ 1Q ast. / Wiggins 1+ three / Brown 2+ threes -130 (DK)

4 Hit Parlays for Saturday’s MLB Night Games

I’m back again today with some more MLB hit parlays I like for the night games. A lot of these guys are picking up hits consistently and have good history against the opposing pitcher.

The first one I want to bring up is Christopher Morel of the Cubs and Trea Turner of the Dodgers. Both of them have been wagons for 1+ hit in the last month. Morel is leading off again tonight, on a 7 game hit streak, and should see 5 ABs. He’s got 1+ hit in 20/22 games on the season and 2+ in 4 of his last 7. Turner is hitting 3rd tonight against the Giants and should see 4+ ABs. He’s got 1+ hit in 29 of his last 30 games.

Play: 0.56U Morel 1+ hit / Turner 1+ hit -112 (FD)

For play #2, I’m sticking with this Cubs team and playing Ian Happ for 1+ hit with Ty France of the Mariners for 1+ hit. Happ has a hit in 9 straight games and is hitting .349 on the season against lefties. Happ is hitting 5th so he should see 4 ABs at least. Ty France is batting 2nd and has 5 hits in his L3 games. France is hitting a massive .778 in 9 ABs against Wacha and .341 vs righties on the season. I think they can both get us 1+ tonight in 4+ ABs.

Play: 0.5U Happ 1+ hit / France 1+ hit +113 (DK)

I’m sticking to this Red Sox @ Mariners game for these last 2 plays. Wacha has a lot of not so great history against the Mariners. Eugenio Suarez is hitting .387 in 33 ABs vs Wacha and has 1+ hit in 9 of his L10. JP Crawford is on a 5 game hit streak with 1+ in 8/10, hitting .347 vs RHPs and .375 in 10 ABs vs Wacha. Crawford will hit 4th and Suarez 5th, providing at least 4 ABs for both of them. I like the value here at +135.

Play: 0.5U Suarez 1+ hit / Crawford 1+ hit +135 (FD)

For the last play, I’m pairing JD Martinez of the Red Sox with Ty France for another SGP. I’m doubling up on France 1+ hit tonight because hitting .778 in 9 ABs vs any pitcher is just too good not to be played. JD Martinez has a hit in his L7 of 10 and is hitting a big .417 vs lefties on the season.

Play: 0.58U France 1+ hit / Martinez 1+ hit -115 (DK)

5 Plus Money Hit Parlays for Friday

Now that the NBA is coming to a close, it’s time to switch gears and get some of my favorite MLB hit parlays out daily. I got 5 plus money hit parlays I like today.

For the first one I’m going with Christopher Morel of the Cubs and MJ Melendez of the Royals. Morel has 1+ in 19/21 games this season and -165 for someone getting 1+ hit 90% of the time is a bad line. Morel is hitting .313 vs RHPs on the season and will likely be leading off again today, giving him 4-5 chances at a hit. Melendez has a hit in 8 of his last 10 games and has been crushing lefties all season, hitting .400 and including a double vs Zimmermann. One thing I like about this one too is that Melendez is moving up the lineup from 6-8 to 5th which should be a confidence booster for him.

0.5U Morel 1+ hit / Melendez 1+ hit +149 (DK)

For the next one, I’ll be running an SGP with Garrett Cooper of the Marlins and Yordan Alvarez of the Astros. Both of these players have been on an absolute tear recently including 15/20 games between them with 2+ hits. Cooper’s got 8/10 with 2+ hits in his L10, is hitting .321 on the season vs RHPs, and will likely hit 2nd again today which should give him 4-5 plate appearances. Alvarez has 7/10 with 2+ hits and 9/10 with 1+, is also hitting righties at a clean .325 on the season, and will hit 4th tonight, likely giving him 4+ at-bats.

0.5U Cooper 1+ hit / Alvarez 1+ hit +110 (DK)

For my 3rd hit parlay, I’ll be running another SGP with Andres Gimenez of the Guardians and Ramon Laureano of the A’s. Gimenez and Laureano have 1+ hit in 9 of their last 10 games each and Laureano just ended a 12 game hit streak and I think he’ll bounce back today and he’s hitting 2nd, so he’ll have 4-5 at bats to do it. Blackburn also gives up .298 vs LHBs rather than .194 vs RHBs, so I like Gimenez to at least go 1-4 tonight. For 2 guys who both have 1+ in 9 of their last 10, I think there’s some nice value in +150.

0.5U Gimenez 1+ hit / Laureano 1+ hit +150 (DK)

For #4, I’m going with 2 guys that have been money for 1+ hit parlays this last month or so in Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals and Luis Arraez of the Twins. Goldschmidt is hitting .304 vs RHPs and .250 in 40 at bats vs Castillo. Goldy also has a hit in 28 of his last 30 while Arraez has 1+ in 24/30. Arraez is also shelling righties, hitting a whopping .398. Arraez is leading off again tonight and Goldschmidt is hitting 3rd, providing both players with 4-5 plate appearances tonight.

0.5U Goldschmidt 1+ hit / Arraez 1+ hit +102 (FD)

For the last play of the night, I got another hit parlay with Brandon Drury of the Reds and Jurickson Profar of the Padres. Like the Cooper and Alvarez play, both of these guys have been consistently hitting the ball. Drury has 9/10 with 1+ hit and 6/10 with 2+ hits while Profar has 8/10 with 1+ hit and is averaging 1.6 hits over his last 10. Pallante is also worse vs RHBs, allowing .316 rather than .143 vs LHBs. Profar also hits righties better and Chad Kuhl is a fadable pitcher. Drury is hitting 2nd tonight and Profar is likely hitting 1st, allowing for both of them to have 4-5 at bats.

0.5U Drury 1+ hit / Profar 1+ hit +103 (DK)

1Q Redemption

Last game was pretty rough and I ended up going 1-3 because Curry and Draymond didn’t grab any 1Q rebounds OR assists. Luckily, Looney came through and saved me from the reverse sweep. I’m back again today though with 4 plays I like for the 1Q in tonight’s Warriors vs Celtics matchup.

While I’m not fully confident in seeing Curry getting back to getting 2+ 1Q rebounds easily, I know that last game was a statistical 1Q anomaly for the Warriors as Draymond Green and Steph Curry both had 0 1Q rebounds and 0 1Q assists. Curry also only played 10 1Q minutes because of foul trouble. Draymond had 9 straight games with 1+ 1Q rebound and 1+ 1Q assist while Steph had 7 straight games with 2+ 1Q rebounds and 2+ 1Q assists. I think they’ll get back to their normal 1Q selves tonight in what feels like a must win game for the Warriors. I’ll also be going back to Kevon Looney tonight, who has 2+ 1Q rebounds and 2+ 1Q rebounds in 7 of his last 8 playoff games. This only gets me to -160, so I’m adding Steph Curry 1+ steal to get us to +105 on DK. Curry has 1+ steals in 5 straight, including 3, 3, and 2 steals on the series.

Plays:

0.6U Curry/Green 1+ 1Q ast. / Curry/Green 1+ 1Q reb. -120 (DK)

0.5U Looney 2+ 1Q pts. / Looney 2+ 1Q reb. / Curry 1+ steals +105 (DK)

The Celtics have been good to us in the 1Q and I think that continues again tonight. Jayson Tatum has 1+ 1Q rebound in 8 of his last 10, including 2 1Q rebounds in G2 and G3. Marcus Smart also has 1+ 1Q rebound in 8 of his last 10 and 12 straight playoff games with 1+ 1Q assist. He also tends to get an extra 1Q minute or two at home, which could be important for one board or one assist. Jaylen Brown has picked up the 1Q rebounding recently with 1+ 1Q rebound in 9 of his last 10, including 2, 3, and 5 1Q rebounds vs the Warriors.

Plays:

0.58U Curry / Tatum / Green / Brown 1+ 1Q reb. -115 (DK)

0.5U Brown 1+ 1Q reb. / Smart 1+ 1Q reb. / Smart 1+ 1Q ast. +100 (DK)

4 First Quarter Plays for #WarriorsWednesday

Every day that we get another chance to bet the 1Q player prop market is a good day. I got 4 plays that I like tonight for Game 3 in Boston.

Steph Curry has continued to put up great 1Q rebounding numbers in the playoffs, with 2+ 1Q rebounds in 10 straight. He’s also grabbed 4+ boards in 8 of his last 10 playoff games with both misses coming by the hook at 3. Curry also has 1+ 1Q assist in 10+ straight while Draymond Green has 1+ 1Q assist in 9 straight playoff games. Draymond also has 1+ 1Q rebound in 9 straight including 2 1Q rebounds and 2 1Q assists in Games 1 and 2 vs Boston. Kevon Looney has also been consistent for the Warriors in the 1Q recently and all we need from him tonight is 2 and 2. In his last 7 playoff games, dating back to the start of the Mavs series, Looney has 2+ 1Q points and 2+ 1Q rebounds in 6/7.

Plays:

0.65U Curry 2+ 1Q reb. / Curry 4+ reb. -130 (DK)

0.55U Looney 2+ 1Q pts. / Looney 2+ 1Q reb. -110 (DK)

The Celtics have also been consistent enough in the 1Q to bring me back in. Marcus Smart has 1+ 1Q assist in 11 straight playoff games. Jaylen Brown has 1+ 1Q rebound in 9 of his last 10 playoff games, including 2 and 3 1Q rebounds vs the Warriors in G1 and G2. Tatum has 1+ 1Q rebound in 8 of his last 10 playoff games but in one of those, the Heat had 39 1Q points which is an anomaly.

Plays:

0.65U Curry / Green / Tatum / Brown 1+ 1Q reb. -130 (DK)

0.5U Curry 2+ 1Q reb. / Smart 1+ 1Q ast. +105 (DK)