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First Quarter Fun in Phoenix

Tonight we go to Phoenix for Game 1 of the Mavericks-Suns series where I’ll be going back to my favorite market: 1st quarter same game parlays on DraftKings.

To start off, I’ll be taking advantage of Ayton’s advantageous matchup against Dwight Powell. DA is a quick starter and I’ll be looking for Chris Paul to feed him early in the paint or off pick and rolls. For my two SGPs that I have Ayton in, all I’m asking from the big man is for 4+ points in the first. Against the Pelicans, DA cleared this number every game with 6, 4, 13, 10, 8, and 10 points. With Booker coming back from injury, I think Ayton will continue to see a slight uptick in volume like he did against the Pelicans. Another leg I’m going with tonight is Ayton’s rebounds. All we need for the SGP is 10+ and DA has put up 17 and 13 boards against Dallas this season.

One thing I like to look for with same game parlays is correlation. Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton make for an elite duo and we know that CP3 is arguably the best passer in the NBA. Paul – averaging 3.2 1Q assists on the season – has cleared 2+ assists in the 1Q 5 out of 6 times against the Pelicans last series and 3 out of 3 times against the Mavericks in the regular season. I’d expect one of CP3’s first quarter assists to go to Ayton tonight.

Plays: 1.15U Ayton 4+ 1Q pts / Paul 1+ 1Q assist / Ayton 10+ reb. -115

1U Ayton 4+ 1Q pts / Paul 2+ 1Q assists +105

Like I’ve done in the past with Devin Booker, I’ll be going back to another first scorer leading scorer in Luka Doncic. Luka has been absolutely dominant in first quarters this season, averaging 9.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 2.6 assists in the regular season. I expect Luka to get back to his full 12 minute first quarters and I think he can easily get 5 points and 1 assist in the 1Q tonight. I’ll be pairing these two legs with Reggie Bullock 2+ threes tonight. Bullock has been a very important piece for the Mavs, seeing 40+ minutes in 5 out of 6 games against the Jazz. He hit at least 2 3s in every game in that series, and almost every shot the guy takes is a 3. He took an average of 7 a game against the Jazz and I’m not expecting him to slow down this series. It wouldn’t be too surprising either if Luka got an assist to Reggie tonight.

Play: 1.05U Luka 5+ 1Q pts / Luka 1+ 1Q assist / Bullock 2+ 3PM -105

Frequent First Quarter Fliers

DraftKings is letting us utilize this market again and I’m targeting 3 players in tonight’s Celtics at Nets matchup.

Marcus Smart has been a player I’ve gone to almost all season for first quarter props. The DPOY is a 1st quarter prop star, averaging 2.0 assists in the first quarter this season. In both games against the Nets, Smart recorded 2 assists in both first quarters. The last time he didn’t have a first quarter assist was 19 games ago in February and he dropped 5 1Q against the Nets earlier this year. All we’re asking from the guy is for 1 tonight.

Usually I’m not looking to target assists when playing Jayson Tatum props, but he has been passing the ball well this series (and this season). In his first two series games, Tatum has put up 3 and 4 assists in the 1st quarter! 1+ assist opened at -320, which seems very reasonable. I was building a longshot with these plays earlier and they pulled Tatum 3+ assists +425 which I think is a good sign for our 1+ assist leg.

The last leg for the SGPs I’m building tonight is Kevin Durant’s first quarter rebounds. KD averaged 2.2 rebounds/1Q and has been consistently putting up 2+ boards every single playoff game, going all the way back to 2019. He picked up 2 and 3 in the first two series games and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t do it again in 12 minutes. He also averaged 2.1 assists in the 1Q this season, recording 1 and 3 against Boston. I trust the Slim Reaper to get us 2 and 1 in the 1Q.

Plays:

0.55U Tatum 1+ as./Smart 1 as./KD 1 as. -110 (1Q)

0.60U Smart 1+ as./KD 2+ reb. -120 (1Q)

0.53U Tatum 1+ as./KD 2+ reb. -105 (1Q)

All lines available on DraftKings Sportsbook

Capitalizing On Increased Volume in the First Quarter

I know that everyone is surprised that I’m playing more first quarter props, but the market really doesn’t get talked about enough. Something about first quarter cashes just hit differently, like NRFI/YRFI in baseball.

The first spot I’m targeting is Pascal Siakam, who takes on the Sixers in Philadelphia for Game 2 of the series. The Raptors have ruled Scottie Barnes out and Gary Trent Jr. is listed as doubtful, providing plenty of opportunity tonight for Siakam. In Game 1, Siakam played all 12 minutes and put up 6 points/2 rebounds./1 assist. With no Scottie Barnes and Gary Trent Jr, I think Spicy P will at least get an extra two or three and some extra rebound chances. In the 5 games without Scottie Barnes this season, Siakam has averaged 8.6 points and 2.8 rebounds in the 1Q on 62% shooting (18/29). I’m expecting Siakam to play the full 12 again and could see him getting 8+ points and 3+ boards in the 1st.

Play: 1.15U Pascal Siakam 5+ points/Siakam 2+ boards 1Q (DK)

Similar to the Siakam play, I’m looking to capitalize on another injury and go to Jalen Brunson against the Jazz tonight. Normally if the Mavs were playing, I’d look to take Luka props in the 1Q as he’s leading the league in 1Q PPG. However, he strained his calf, so the volume has to go somewhere. In Game 1, Brunson had 8 points and 1 assist in the first on 9 shots. That’s about how many shots Luka takes per game. In his last 5 games without Luka, Brunson has been the temporary leader of the Mavs, averaging 7.2 points and 2.2 assists in the 1Q. All we need from JB tonight is 5+ points and 1+ assist in the first. Seems reasonable!

Play: 1.1U Jalen Brunson 5+ points/Brunson 1+ assist 1Q -110

Favorite Bet for Pelicans/Suns Game 1

April 17th, 2022

Tonight we get another chance to go back to one of my favorite markets: 1st quarter props. DraftKings has had these off and on the books for most of the year and it’s such a great market because you can cash in 1 quarter and the lines feel a little off sometimes.

I’ll be going back to someone I’ve bet on a lot this year in Devin Booker. Booker has the 2nd highest average 1Q points with 9.3, just behind Luka. Usually DK does a pretty good job with setting lines, but I think these Booker lines are off. In his last 5 games, Book is averaging 13.2 points in the 1Q, with 10, 11, 12, 11 and 22(!!) with an average of 8.4 FGA. After seeing his first quarter game log again, I was surprised the line didn’t open at 9 at around -200. DK is offering 8+ at -155, which feels like a great leg for a same game parlay. Like other stars around the league, Booker is also almost always playing the full 12 minutes in the first. In his 4 games against the Pelicans this season, Book has 11, 11, 13, and 5 points (1Q). To get rid of the juice and complete the SGP, I’m keeping it simple and going with 1 Booker rebound in the first quarter to get us to +100. He’s gotten there every game this season against the Pelicans, including a game where he had 5 in the first. In his last 20 games, DB has recorded at least 1 board in the first 19/20 times.

Play: 1U Devin Booker 8+ points 1Q / 1+ rebound 1Q +100

Trust Ice Trae and the Hawks to Stay Hot in the First Quarter

The Hawks travel to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers in the final play-in game for the Eastern Conference. The winner tonight will take on the Miami Heat in the first round. The Hawks own the season series at 3-1, taking a game in Cleveland along with their 2 wins at home.

Tonight, we get another opportunity to experiment with an underrated market in the sports betting world – first quarter prop bets. I’m going back to the well and riding with Trae Young assists in the first quarter. In the last two games against the Cavs, Trae has put up 4 and 5 assists in the first quarter. He is easily the best ball-handler and playmaker the Hawks have. In his last 5 games, Young has recorded 5, 2, 6, 5, and 6 assists in the first quarter, including 5 against the Cavs on March 31. For this SGP, all we need is 3+ assists from Trae. One of my favorite aspects of Trae Young is the fact that he almost always plays all 12 minutes of the first quarter, allowing him plenty of time to get a few assists.

One thing I typically look for in same game parlays is correlation between plays. To go with Trae’s assists, I’m looking to target De’Andre Hunter’s first quarter points prop. Hunter has proven himself with the Hawks, becoming a consistent starter and an important presence on both sides of the ball. For this play, all we need from Hunter is 4+ points in the first quarter. In his last 5 games, he’s dropped 7, 0, 6, 6, and 9 points in the first quarter. Against the Cavs, he had 5, 5, and 3 points in the first quarter. The volume has been there plenty recently in the first for Hunter, averaging 4.6 field goal attempts in his L5. As long as he makes two shots, we’ll be golden. My favorite thing about this play is that Trae consistently looks for Hunter in the first quarter. In the last two games against the Cavs, 4 of Trae’s 9 total 1Q assists have gone to Hunter.

Play: 1.25U Trae Young 3+ 1Q assists / De’Andre Hunter 4+ 1Q points -105 (DK)

For my mini longshot, I’m laddering the above play and adding Darius Garland’s first quarter points prop. Garland has transformed into an all-star this year and has become the leader of this young, surprising Cavaliers team. In his two games against the Hawks this season, DG had 12 and 10 points in the first quarter on 5/8 and 4/7 shooting. I truly believe he can get us 9+ points in the first quarter tonight.

Play: 0.15U Trae 4+ 1Q assists/Hunter 6+ 1Q points/Garland 9+ 1Q points +800 (DK)

Two Players to Target in Tonight’s Elimination Game

The San Antonio Spurs travel to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans in a win or go home game in the play-in tournament. The winner of this game will take on the Clippers for a chance to play the Suns in the first round of the playoffs. The Spurs and the Pelicans have already played each other 4 times this season, with the Spurs taking 3 out of the 4 games, including one in New Orleans.

The two players I’m looking to play in this game are Jaxson Hayes and Dejounte Murray. Hayes has proved to be a key piece for the Pelicans defensively and in his last 2 games against the Spurs, he has recorded 3 blocks in each. Jaxson Hayes O0.5 blocks is currently available on DraftKings at -135. Hayes has also played an average 25.9 minutes in his 3 games vs the Spurs – about 6 minutes more than his season average of 20.0. In the last 2 games where he recorded 3 blocks, Hayes got the start and played 28 and 29 minutes respectively. I see Hayes getting around 30 minutes again, as this could be the last game of the season. The Spurs are also known for driving to the hoop on offense and PFs have recorded the most blocks in the league at 1.62 per game over the last 15 games against the Spurs.

Play: 1.35U Jaxson Hayes O0.5 blocks -135 (DK)

The next play I’m looking to make in this game is an SGP that represents Dejounte Murray and what he has been doing all season. For this one, I’m going with O5.5 rebounds, O7.5 assists, and 1+ steal for -115 on DraftKings. Murray has been consistently hitting these numbers all season, averaging 8.3 rebounds, 9.2 assists, and 2.0 steals per game. In his 4 games this season against the Pelicans, Murray has averaged 9.8 rebounds, 10.0 assists, 2.3 steals. Dejounte Murray (a 1st-team all prop member) has averaged 17.3 potential assists against New Orleans this season and I expect him to take over tonight for the Spurs. I think that Murray can cash this SGP for us like Paul George did last night (O5.5 boards, O4.5 assists, 1+ steal). The ball will be in his hands plenty and he should see 35+ minutes tonight in a close, thrilling game.

Plays: 1.15U Dejounte Murray O5.5 rebounds, O7.5 assists, 1 steal -115 (DK)

1U Dejounte Murray O17.5 rebounds/assists +100 (DK)

Longshots: 0.2U Murray 10+ rebounds/10+ assists +425 (DK)

0.1U Hayes 2+ blocks/Murray 3+ steals +1000 (DK)